Southern Tasmania Forecast (issued Friday 25th Jul)

Best Days: Late Sunday, Monday morning, Wednesday onwards

Recap

Tiny surf continued yesterday, and further today with good winds for an explore across the region.

This weekend onwards (Jul 26 onwards)

Tomorrow will remain tiny across the state with favourable winds for exposed spots, being variable and from the N'th early ahead of a swing to the SW into the afternoon but without much strength.

Sunday's late kick in long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell is still on track with Clifton expected to pulse to 2ft later in the day before easing from a similar size Monday morning. Winds will be favourable and fresh from the N/NW Sunday and then from the N/NW tending W/NW Monday.

There's nothing significant on the cards until Wednesday next week and the models are still moving around a bit regarding the strength and positioning of a very strong and broad polar frontal progression through our swell window.

Current model guidance has backed off the intensity of the progression slightly, but this will probably be adjusted back up in the next update.

What we're expected to see is a broad and drawn out progression of cold fronts under WA and through the Bight early next week before it all moves across us, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due to be generated under us in our western swell window.

The wind direction isn't ideal either is the short-lived nature but the sheer strength of the system should produce a strong swell, building rapidly through Wednesday, reaching 3-4ft across Clifton into the afternoon before dropping back through Thursday.

We're likely to see some reinforcing long-range W/SW groundswell energy into Thursday afternoon but it's hard to put a size on this at this stage. Winds look to be from the W/NW all day Wednesday while Thursday will see even better N/NW winds.

There's a lot of room for movement around this forecast though, so check back Monday for a much clearer idea on the numbers and timing. Have a great weekend!