South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Nov 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swells Thurs with light winds and a S’ly change
• Small blend of weak windswells Fri with S-SE winds
• Small SE swells this weekend under a light onshore flow
• Freshening N’lies Sun, with NE windswell on the MNC
• NE windswell Mon with clean conditions before a S’ly change
• S-S/SE swells building from Tues as trough of low pressure forms in Tasman
• Long range tradeswell and E swells also on the radar, although low confidence this far out

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday across the region in the 1-1.5ft range tops didn’t offer much in the way of a wave. Today we have a small signal of S groundswell in the 2 occ. 3ft range at S magnets in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. South of Ballina there is a small E’ly signal in the mix as well, offering a 2ft wave. Conditions are generally clean with light winds tending to N-NE seabreezes in advance of storms, which may see wind reversals.

Mix of S and E swells offered up a few fun options across the North Coast, smaller in SEQLD

This week (Nov 11-15)

Still a very troughy, unstable pattern with a low pressure trough off the NSW Central coast moving south and an approaching trough/front expected to bring a S’ly change tomorrow, along with a small signal of S swell,  before a new high moves into the Tasman Fri. We’ll see that high quickly become dominant with an increasing N’ly flow over the weekend bringing NE windswell to NSW, favouring temperate areas. Troughiness next week does offer potential for low pressure development in the Tasman but we’ve got high model variability so confidence is very low in the outcomes. 

In the short run we’ll see light/variable winds early tomorrow (W-NW) with the S’ly change across most of the region by late morning/lunch-time before stalling around Moreton Bay, with N’ly winds continuing across the Sunshine Coast. E swell will have backed down so a small mix of E and leftover S swells should offer some 2ft sets early dropping back to 1-2ft or so through the morning. 

Just a weak blend of short period S through E/SE windswells on offer for Fri, offering a grovelly 1-2ft wave at open beaches. Conditions won’t be great either with a light S/SE flow (SW inshore early across the Northern Rivers and Gold Coast) tending to mod SE’ly breezes as the high moves into the Tasman. 

This weekend (Nov 16-17)

Nothing much happening on the weekend with a light onshore S tending E’ly flow on Sat and some minor windswell offering  another day of weak, low energy surf in the 1-2ft range, possibly perking up a notch to 2ft during the day. Winds south of Yamba should tend E/NE-NE during the a’noon.

Those N-NE winds really strengthen into Sun, especially south of Yamba as a trough and cut-off low approach from the W. We should see winds freshen in excess of 25 kts across the MNC, grading lighter the further north you go and tending to light seabreezes in SEQLD.  NE windswell should build from 2ft up into the 3ft range in the a’noon across the MNC, grading smaller the further north you go. 

Next week (Nov18 onwards)

A window beckons Mon morning for NE windswell across the MNC with light winds ahead of a potential S’ly change. We may see a nice period of offshore NW-W winds cleaning up leftover 2-3ft surf before a mod/fresh S’ly change comes in with a trough late in the day. Further north we’ll see minor NE windswell to 1-2ft with a window of clean conditions before the change. There is some model disagreement about the timing of the change so expect an update on Fri.

We’ll see the trough become semi-stationary through to the middle of next week, with a high well south of the Bight holding a reasonably tight pressure squeeze along the NSW Coast and into the Tasman. Under this scenario we’re looking at mod/fresh S-S/SE winds through Tues and Wed and possibly right through to Fri.

The X factor will be the development of a low pressure system in the trough line next week. Models are divergent in the specifics but in broad agreement in the general pattern of a low forming in the Tasman, possibly deepening and becoming a major system. 

There has been low model skill resolving these systems so far this spring so we’ll contain the froth for now, and expect an increase in S/SE swell through mid next week. 

Also in the mix we may see some S’ly groundswell and some E/SE swell from a fetch near the North Island, both of which are likely to be a very low signal in amongst dominant SE swells if the low winds up.

We’ll pencil in some size next week, possibly up into the 4-5ft range next week, likely Wed/Thurs as the peak and see how it shapes up on Fri. Hopefully, without having to downgrade size.

Seeya then.