South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 27th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large and windy S-SE swells for Fri into Sat, only sheltered Points surfable under fresh S-SE winds
• Gale force S’lies across MNC, possibly SW north of Byron-Ballina, SW on the Gold Coast and W/SW-SW on Sunshine Coast
• South-North gradient in size with biggest surf on MNC, smaller the further north you go
• Easing but still sizey swells Sun into Mon
• S pulses from Tues, favouring NENSW
• Better quality S/SE groundswell from Fri into the weekend with light winds
• More S swell medium term, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday to 1-1.5ft with N’ly winds before a S’ly change worked it’s way north through the a’noon. Today is seeing very inclement weather across NENSW as a surface low forms in a trough line between Yamba and Ballina. That is bringing offshore winds north of the low, swirling winds around the low axis and strong to gale force S’lies southwards of the low. Swells are building rapidly across the North Coast and border, going from 2ft to 5-6ft and still building. Smaller surf in SEQLD where the building trend will occur later. 

D-bah in the sweet spot with building swells and offshore winds

This weekend (Sep28-29)

Very dynamic weekend f/cast. Strong high pressure (1030hpa) moving off the Southern NSW Coast with a trough and embedded coastal low currently forming off the Far North Coast and expected to deepen into tomorrow before dissipating Sun and lingering in the Tasman early next week as a trough. A caveat to start with. With the low so close to the coast any small wobbles or changes in positioning will affect local winds, so stay attuned to your local wind obs, especially around the Tweed-Byron to Ballina region which looks to be most susceptible to wind shifts.

Gales aimed at the MNC look to make surfing a no go tomorrow with massive storm surf to 10-12ft and gale force S’lies tending SE’ly. Further north there could be opportunity Ballina-Byron for SW winds and very large 6-10ft surf, with some options in the Bay. Tweed to Gold Coast should be offshore SW most of the day (tending S’ly in the a’noon) with sizey 6-8ft surf (8-10ft on the Tweed Bar) and options across the Points. Sunshine Coast should be offshore all day and in the 4-5ft range at open beaches. 

The low looks to rapidly dissipate Sun, with a fetch moving southwards and an onshore SE-E flow expected across the North Coast, more S’ly on the Gold Coast and remaining W/SW-SW across the Sunshine Coast. Sizey swell to 6-8ft across NENSW (still some 8-10ft sets on the MNC), grades smaller 5-6ft on the Goldy, 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast with all areas seeing an easing trend in the a’noon. 

Next week (Sep30 onwards)

Light winds for Mon, with land breezes and a’noon SE breezes before another front/trough system enters the lower Tasman, bringing a return S’ly flow which should hit the North Coast in the a’noon. There should be some fun E swell leftovers to 4-5ft on the MNC, grading smaller 3-4ft in the Far North Coast and 3ft in SEQLD.

The situation becomes dynamic again next week. The trough is expected to stall in the central Tasman with a new strong front pushing NE into the Tasman and becoming incorporated into the trough system. The system then looks to stall and intensify near the South Island, possibly even retrograding mid next week.

The up shot of that is a series of S, then S/SE swells next week. They won’t be of the magnitude of the June Solstice swells which came from a similar set-up but we will see plenty of size.

Tues sees a first pulse with new S swells to 3-4ft on offer in NENSW and light morning winds tending light/mod S-SE during the day. Surf will be smaller in SEQLD with E/SE swell to 2-3ft.

By Wed we should see a stronger S swell pulse from the frontal intrusion, up into the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller into more sheltered areas and SEQLD under S’ly winds.

That pulse looks to hold Thurs with a mod S’ly flow on offer. We may see light enough morning winds for a land breeze to develop, otherwise, it’ll be regional points offering the best waves.

Stronger S/SE pulses then fill in Fri/Sat-Sun from the reintensified low system (see below). Too early to have confidence in size and specifics but current modelling suggests 4-6ft surf with light winds, tending more N’ly into Sun.

Worth pencilling in now and checking back in Mon.

Longer term and we’ll see those swells ease with another frontal system early week beginning 7/10 suggesting more S swell following that.

Active period ahead so stay tuned for Monday’s updates and until then, have a great weekend!