South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 25th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small leftover S swells Thurs with a S’ly change arriving in the a’noon MNC, after dark elsewhere
• Strong S’lies developing o/night Thurs into Fri as trough deepens off MNC
• Large and windy S-SE swells for Fri into Sat, only sheltered Points surfable under fresh S-SE winds
• Easing but still sizey swells Sun into Mon
• More E/SE-E swell next week, clean under light winds, and easing through Tues into Wed
• Back to small S pulses from Thurs next week

Recap

Long period S swell trains showed to 16-18 seconds on Northern NSW buoys yesterday a’noon,  offering up 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW under W/NW tending N’ly winds. Still some strong sets from the S to 4ft across NENSW but N’ly winds have reduced quality waves to less than a handful of locations. SEQLD remains tiny with gurgly windswell and some minor E’ly tradeswell. 

Strong S groundswell lines at NENSW S facing beaches this morning , although quality was elusive

This week (Sep 25-27)

Model consistency has improved to the point where we now have reasonable confidence over short term outcomes of a dynamic synoptic situation set to unfold over the next 24-36hrs. A robust front linked to a deep low is expected to migrate up the southern NSW coast o/night and into the wee hours, with a surface low expected to form off the North Coast as a trough interacts with the front. We’ll see strong S’ly, tending SE’ly winds into the end of the week from tomorrow with sizey (but not huge) S-S/SE swells with an easing pattern over the weekend as the system quickly becomes focussed on the sub-tropics.

In the short run we should see a  pre-storm day tomorrow with cloud increasing and light NW winds, tending mod N’lies. A S’ly change from the front and trough looks to hit Coffs by around 2pm, reaching Ballina-Byron after dark and the border in the middle of the night. Small waves on offer tomorrow with some S groundswell to 2 occ. 3ft at S fauxbg beaches in NENSW and minor E’ly-NE’ly swells in SEQLD offering up 1 occ. 2ft surf.

Fri the the S’ly looks to be strengthening across the entire f/cast region by 7am, with strong to potential low end gales from the S/SW tending S’ly then S/SE’ly through the a’noon making a big, windy mess of most places. A surface low is expected to form off the North Coast and migrate northwards during the day, stalling off the SEQLD coast by close of play. Short range S-S/SE swell will steeply rise through the day, with size building from 3-4ft to 8ft+ by close of play in NENSW, smaller 5-6ft in SEQLD. Expect smaller surf peeling into protected Points and Bays. 

This weekend (Sep28-29)

High pressure moves off the South Coast into the Tasman over the weekend with a low pressure system off the SEQLD coast directing a broad fetch of strong wind to near gale S/SE-SE winds through the Northern Tasman (see below). This will produce large SE’ly swells for the sub-tropics with only Points rideable for most of the region. Sat should be in the large to very large range with swells up in the 8-10ft range across exposed stretches in NENSW, Gold Coast, and slightly smaller north of Cape Moreton. Smaller swells will be found on the inner points which will likely be the most surfable options under fresh S/SE-SE winds. We should start to see an easing trend through the a’noon.

We’ll see winds ease into Sun as the low dissipates, remaining mod/fresh SE in NENSW but tending lighter S’ly into SEQLD, possibly with NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Smaller but still sizey 5-6ft surf (6-8ft sets still on offer in NENSW) may open up some more options, especially in SEQLD but for the most part it’ll be well contested waves on the Points.

Next week (Sep30 onwards)

Looking pretty good to start next week with the low in the Northern Tasman continuing to send quality E-E/SE swell to 3-5ft to the f/cast region, easing through the day, with light winds expected for the early tending S-SE during the day. 

That swell starts to ease back through Tues as the system dissipates, although we should see the low devolve into a long trough through the Tasman, with a broad E’ly infeed through the first half of next week, suggesting fun sized E/SE swells holding at least 2-3ft through Tues, easing back further into Wed. Early light winds Tues before a front brings a SW-S change.

Further ahead and we’ll see swells switch back to the S as the front pushes into the Tasman Tues/Wed (see below). That should see a modest kick in new S swell later Thurs which we’ll pencil in in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW for now and adjust accordingly.

Looks like easing swells into next weekend as an elongated high in the Tasman offers a mild blocking pattern. 

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

For now, batten down the hatches short term, get your paddling arms on,  with some better windows ahead as winds ease off.

Seeya Fri.