South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 23rd Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S groundswell pulse later Tues, extending into Wed with freshening N’ly winds
• NE windswell  for the MNC Wed, not much north of Yamba with freshening N’lies
• Strong S’lies developing o/night Thurs into Fri as trough deepens off MNC
• Large and windy S-SE swells for Fri into Sat, only sheltered Points surfable under fresh S-SE winds
• Easing but still sizey swells Sun into Mon
• More E/SE-E swell next week as low or trough lingers in Tasman- check back Wed for latest revisions

Recap

Fun sized S swells kept S facing beaches in NENSW fairly active over the weekend (tiny in SEQLD) with Sat seeing 3ft surf under light winds. Sunday saw some longer period swell trains offering inconsistent 3 occ. 4ft sets at S facing beaches for the patient. Still some sets from the S hanging in there this morning with the occ. 2-3 ft wave on offer at S facing beaches in NENSW, still tiny in SEQLD,  under premium offshore conditions expected to tend N/NE in the a’noon.

Long, long lines of S swell over the weekend

This week (Sep 23-27)

We’ve got a really dynamic outlook this week as a strong high drifts across from the Bight and a trough drawing in tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean moves across the country and eventually enters the Tasman Sea, with a long angled trough and possible surface low expected to form in the Tasman late this week. Run to run and between model consistently is still poor but odds are firming on a large S-SE swell event late this week, possibly extending into next week if the surface low persists in the Tasman. Currently we have some strong frontal activity passing under Tasmania. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see early W-NW winds tomorrow morning as a small, troughy area off the South Coast lingers then moves north, bringing a’noon NE breezes which freshen to mod paces as high pressure moves into the Tasman. Long period swell trains will be propagating up the coast  with super long period swells (20-22 seconds) followed by the bulk of the energy in the 16 second band arriving later in the day. This won’t be showing everywhere across the f/cast region ( remaining tiny for the most part in SEQLD) but some solid sets at S facing beaches and reefs in NENSW should see some 3-4ft sets with outliers possible at deepwater reefs, especially through the a’noon. 

Freshening N-NE winds on Wed as the high moves NE and a trough and front approach from the west. Expect long period S swell sets to 3ft at NENSW S facing beaches,  and some developing NE windswell to 2ft in the a’noon across the MNC. Neither of those swell sources will show much size in SEQLD with surf staying below 2ft, mostly weak E’ly swell from winds in the Coral Sea.

A small blend of S and NE windswell continues into Thurs, offering 2 occ. 3ft sets at NENSW S facing beaches. SEQLD will see a smidge more E’ly tradeswell. Early winds from the NW-N will freshen from the N-N/NE with a late SW-S change likely just reaching Coffs by dark.

All hell breaks loose on Fri as a strong front passes into the Tasman and a trough deepens off the Hunter to Mid North Coast, backed by the strong high in the Bight. Winds should be freshening from before dawn from the S, reaching fresh/strong wind strength by mid-morning/lunch-time and tending S/SE in the a’noon. We’ll see short range S swells start to rise rapidly through the day with longer period S swells underneath it. Expect plenty of robust S-S/SE swell to 4-5ft early, building to 6-8ft during the day. Smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD building to 3-5ft. Smaller peelers on the Points.

.This weekend (Sep28-29)

Models are offering divergent outcomes for the weekend with EC suggesting the trough forms a surface low off the North Coast which remains slow moving into the weekend. That will maintain plenty large  E/SE-E swell over the weekend with SW-S winds, easing through Sun. 

GFS model has a broader trough moving NE more rapidly stalling in the Northern Tasman laster in the weekend. That resolution would see very sizey S-SE swells into Sat, in the 8-10ft range with fresh SE winds.

Sizey but easing swells from the SE-E/SE on Sun to 5 occ. 6ft with lighter winds from the S-SE.

We’ll see how model runs look over the next 24-36 hrs and update Wed. We could see serious revisions.

Next week (Sep30 onwards)

Low confidence in the outlook next week due to low model skill in resolving the trough or low in the Tasman next week. EC has the trough lingering  in the Tasman with a broad infeed suggesting plenty of E’ly swell through the first half of next week with possible offshore winds from the return flow around the trough.

GFS has a less bullish outlook with a weaker surface low drifting towards New Zealand and a smaller amount of E’ly swell.

Either way we should see some quality waves next week from the E’ly angled swell with potentially good winds.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.

Seeya then.