South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 20th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small fun pulse of S swell Sat for S facing beaches in NENSW  with light winds
• Small fun S swells Sun for NENSW S facing beaches
• Mostly tiny in SEQLD over the weekend
• Easing S swells Mon with light winds
• Small S pulse later Mon into Tues with light winds
• NE windswell likely for the MNC Wed, not much north of Yamba with freshening N’lies
• Stronger S pulse possible later next week as front pushes into the Tasman
• Possible low forming in Tasman next week with days of strong S-SE swell from late next week- low confidence in specifics so check back Mon for revisions

Recap

S’ly swells showed size to 3 occ. 4ft in NENSW at S facing beaches, smaller 2ft in SEQLD with not many surfable spots under NW tending N’ly winds. Cleaner conditions today under W’ly winds with the occ 3ft set in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. Small NE windswell was also in the mix.

Fun wedges across NENSW with NE windswell and S groundswell

This weekend (Sep21-22)

No change to the wind outlook for the weekend- zonal fronts and weak high pressure to the west and well out in the Coral Sea supply light winds with a weak trough off the North Coast seeing swirling breezes in the a’noon. At this stage it looks like Sat and Sun will both see light/variable land breezes with Sat a’noon seeing light SE-E breezes and Sun a’noon seeing light E-E/NE breezes.

Doesn’t look we’ll see much swell of significance from these zonal fronts so expect small swells from the S over the weekend, only really favouring S swell magnets in NENSW.

Sat should see some nice 2 occ. 3ft surf at S swell magnets in NENSW with a mix of mid period and traces of long period energy. Expect tiny surf away from S facing beaches and the occ 2 footer at the best SEQLD S swell magnets. 

Another minor flush of mid and long S swell Sun a’noon keeps S facing beaches in that 2 occ. 3ft range again in NENSW with tiny surf elsewhere.

Next week (Sep23 onwards)

Light winds for Mon with another front pushing through Bass Strait Sun into Mon and bringing a W’ly flow up through temperate NSW with the sub-tropics seeing an a’noon NE flow. Again, just a small flush of mid period directional S swell pushing up the coast, seeing some 2 footers at NENSW S swell magnets. Tiny elsewhere.

We’ll see high pressure start to occupy the Tasman early next week with a developing N’ly flow through Tues. Small S swell leftovers Tues in the 1-2ft range.
By Wed that N’ly flow start to look robust enough to generate some workable NE windswell  for the MNC, likely building to 2-3ft in the a’noon. Expect smaller surf the further north you go with the tail of the fetch around the QLD border and not much north of there. Underneath that NE windswell should be some small S’ly groundswell from a mobile but deep low tracking through the lower Tasman (see below). Some 3ft sets are likely from that source later Wed into Thurs.

The trough then brings a more dynamic pattern into the second half of next week. We should see early N’ly winds Thurs with a mix of NE and S swells to 2-3ft across NENSW, minor N’ly slop across SEQLD. From there the trough deepens and moves Northwards, backed by a strong front in the lower Tasman and a large high in the Bight. The combination of those elements strongly suggests a surge in S swell late Thurs into Fri, with freshening SW-S winds. We’ll pencil in a build to 5-6ft late Thurs PM into Fri and see how it looks on Mon.

More strong S swell through Fri at this stage with revisions expected for size and timing.

Model divergence reduces confidence in the outlook with GFS suggesting the trough deepens into a broad surface low which would bring days of elevated S through SE swell and S-SE winds (see below).

ECMWF prognosis features a less dynamic outlook with the trough moving north and dissipating into the end of the week with the high pressure dominating the Tasman by the weekend, bringing an E tending strong NE flow through this period.

We’ll flag a dynamic outlook for later next week and see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!