South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 16th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More sizey S swell pulses Tues/Wed with light winds tending N’ly Wed PM
• Much smaller in SEQLD
• Small S swells continue into and over the weekend favouring S facing beaches in NENSW
• Not much next week, more small S swells, possibly some minor E’ly trades wells in SEQLD by mid week

Recap

A fun blend of S swells to 3-4ft Sat in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S magnets with clean conditions early before mod S’ly winds kicked up. Sunday was clean early with fun-sized 2-3ft surf across NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD before fresh/strong S’ly winds kicked in through the a’noon. This morning is seeing sizey S swells to 4-6ft in NENSW, still a bit raw and ragged at S facing beaches under a SW flow, with smaller, cleaner surf to 3ft in SEQLD, tiny away from S exposed breaks.

S magnets showing size and shape this morning

This week (Sep 16-20)

After a spell of early spring heat the synoptic pattern has reversed back to a more winter style situation with frontal activity pushing into the Tasman , backed by a strong high (1040hPa) in the Bight. We’ll see this high rapidly weaken and move up over NSW and into the Tasman this week while zonal fronts continue westerly ridging below Tasmania. More frontal activity is expected later this week continuing the pattern of episodic S swells with generally favourable  winds. Let’s dig into the details.

In the short run the current frontal push into the Tasman generates a reinforcing pulse of mid period S swell through tomorrow. We should see surf rebuild into the 4-5ft range across NENSW through mid-morning, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. Compared to the last swell, winds are looking pretty good as a weak, troughy area shifts close to the coast  in advance of the high pressure cell. Early offshore breezes should have a S’ly component (W/SW-SW) before shifting light S/SE-SE to E/SE in the a’noon. 

Easing but still strong S swell  into Wed with some quality 3-4ft leftovers across NENSW backed up by some longer period swell trains. Conditions should be primo under a light W’ly tending W/NW’ly flow, before winds shift N’ly in the a’noon and freshen ahead of a front.

NW-N winds again for Thurs with light offshore land breezes early as the front pushes through southern NSW. Small, but clean longer period S swell trains look to offer some 2 occ. 3ft sets across S facing beaches in NENSW with tiny surf in SEQLD. 

Another small clean-ish day to end the working week with some traces of long period S swell offering up the occ 2ft set. Offshore W’ly winds look to blow through the morning before tending variable SE-NE in the a’noon.

This weekend (Sep21-22)

Light offshore winds and weak a’noon breezes continue into Sat as zonal fronts bring a high riding W’ly flow across temperate NSW and a troughy pattern lingers in the Northern Tasman. We may see W’ly winds tend more SE in the a’noon depending on how the pattern plays out. Not much surf on offer but we should continue to see more small S swell energy from a very active storm pattern below the continent. Not much size for Sat, in the 2ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD.

We may see a little more long period energy Sun with some 2-3ft sets at NENSW S swell magnets and offshore winds tending SW then E’ly as a small troughy feature moves up the coast. We’ll finesse those winds as we move through the week but at the moment they look very workable all day.

Next week (Sep23 onwards)

Nothing major to start next week. Looks like we will see fronts approaching the Tasman but steered southwards by a mild blocking pattern . That would suggest small/tiny surf for the first half of next week- with just some minor S swell trains keeping S facing beaches surfable. A weak tradeflow developing in the Coral Sea next week may generate some minor E’ly swells through next week. By mid next week we may see freshening N-NE flow off the sub-tropical coast generate some NE windswell. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Seeya then.