South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 11th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S swell showing Thurs PM (MNC only), peaking Fri with mod/fresh S’ly winds
• More S swell on the weekend, sizey Sun into Mon with fresh S’ly winds
• More S swell pulses Tues/Wed with light winds tending N’ly Wed

Recap

Small surf yesterday topped out around 1-2ft yesterday with light winds that tended E’ly in the a’noon. Another small blend today with the occ. 2-3ft set from the S in NENSW and small E’ly swells to 1-2ft elsewhere. Similar light winds tending E’ly through the day.

Small S swell sets showing across NENSW this morning

This week (Sep 11-13)

We’ve got high pressure moving across the Tasman with a much stronger dual-centred high tracking into the Bight. A trough between them moves offshore tomorrow forming a fast moving trough of low pressure in the Tasman, which tracks rapidly NE. We’ll see a spike of S swell from this system, downgraded from Mon. A following front and trough now looks stronger, earning an upgrade. More S swell into the middle of next week from polar activity tracking NE with good winds expected. Let’s dig in.

We’ll still see fresh S’ly winds develop tomorrow as the trough moves offshore and deepens. Early N’ly breezes should freshen before the S’ly change hits Coffs around midday, Ballina-Byron by 5pm and the border around dark or just after. Only the MNC should see a little late kick in new S swell to 2-3ft with the rest of the region seeing a small blend of E’ly and NE windswell to 2ft.

We’ll see a fresh gusty S’ly flow in Fri morning (SW across the Byron to Southern Gold Coast) so expect it to be pretty raw and ragged. Size in the 5-6ft range from new S swell across NENSW, with smaller 3-4ft surf at SEQLD S facing beaches due to the fetch extending right up to QLD latitudes. There’ll be some small peelers on sheltered Points and raggedy rights (with plenty of sweep!) across more exposed regional Points.

This weekend (Sep14-15)

We’ve got greater confidence on the weekend outlook as models come into alignment over the strength of the follow-up front expected on the weekend. Sat looks fun with easing S swells from 3-4ft to 2-3ft (smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches).  We should see morning SW-S breezes tend S-S/SE and then moderate in the a’noon and the trough moves right away and local pressure gradients ease.

The following front and trough now looks to push through the North Coast early morning with just a brief period of light offshore breezes before it hits. This fetch is broader, stronger and extends further into the Tasman the Thursdays rapid fire fetch so we should see surf of a bulkier dimension into Sun up into the 6ft+ range with bigger sets, smaller 3-4ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. Very windy though with S exposed breaks blown to shreds. There’ll be smaller, workable options at protected Points under fresh S’lies. 

Next week (Sep16 onwards)

Easing swells on Mon, from a high base with size to 6ft early in NENSW, 3-4ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches, dropping through the day. Winds should moderate from mod/fresh S’ly, tending more S/SE and easing during the day. Again, smaller peelers on the sheltered Points with more raw and ragged options on exposed regional Points. Keep expectations for wave quality pegged low though due to the strong S’ly winds. We’ll be essentially surfing in the fetch.

We’ll see another complex of S swell trains make landfall from Tues. Mostly mid period S from the frontal intrusion into the Tasman (see below) but there will be come much longer period swells in there from polar sources. 

Tues and Wed are looking good with mostly offshore mornings  and light a’noon winds, likely starting to tend N’ly by Wed.

At this stage, under current modelling we should see size build to 4-5ft at S facing beaches Tues a’noon , holding into Wed before easing during the a’noon. We’ll finesse size and timing on Fri but at this stage it looks pretty good, at least before the N’lies kick back in.

The rest of next week now looks quite small. There’s still some suggestion of a N’ly infeed into a trough from EC but it looks ,much weaker than on Mon. 

Small surf looks likely for the second half of next week.

A strong front and low approach the Tasman late next week or weekend and certainly offers the chance of a major S swell. Long way off and confidence is low so check in Fri and we’ll how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then.