South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 4th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Background E’ly swell supplies a few small, very inconsistent sets this week into the weekend 
• Easing S swells through Thurs with N’ly winds developing (light winds early)
• Small E’ly blend keeps surfable waves through the end of next week with NW-N winds
• Small S swells next Tues/Wed next week
• We should see some small E’ly tradeswell developing later next week- check back Fri for the latest revisions

Recap

S swell kicked in yesterday with sets building to 4ft+ at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, under morning SW winds which tended fresh S’ly in the a’noon. Size has levelled off into this morning with some occ. 4ft sets on offer, clean at S exposed breaks under a morning SW flow which will tend variable then E’ly as the day goes on. 

S swell magnet looking good this morning

This week (Sep4-6)

The front responsible for the current S swell has skipped across the Tasman and we have a strong high (1030hPa) currently drifting NE off NSW into the Tasman Sea at typical spring latitudes. Once that high moves offshore we’ll see N’lies kick in for the rest of the week with only a weak trough expected to interrupt that pattern. No major swells on the radar through the short or medium term.

In the short run and we’ll see fun leftover S swell tomorrow to 3-4ft in NENSW at S facing beaches, 2ft sets at SEQLD S swell magnets. You’ll need to get in early to beat the N’lies with morning winds being light/variable before kicking up from the N-NE, strongest south of Byron-Ballina. An easing trend will kick in by mid morning.

It’s a meagre outlook for the rest of the week. Nothing much at all on Fri apart from a very stray set to 2ft from the E coming out of the South Pacific. Just a grovel for the patient.

This weekend (Sep7-8)

Nothing much to look forwards to over the weekend - an approaching trough looks to stall out around Seal Rocks on Sat, leading to mod/fresh N/NW-N winds in NENSW, a notch lighter in SEQLD.

More mod/fresh N’lies on Sun.

Given the prevailing N’lies it’ll be backbeaches only for a clean wave  with everywhere else wind affected.

No real swells to speak of either, with a small mix of NE windswell and minor background E swell at around 2ft.

Pretty typical Spring conditions with a grovel on offer for the keen.

Next week (Sep9 onwards)

A front moves into the Tasman o/night Sun into Mon, with a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman expected to linger. Under current modelling the front and parent low look zonal, disjointed and very fast moving and the fetch out of Bass Strait is weaker than previous fetched. That spells a minor increase from the S through Tues/Wed- up into the 2ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW.

Not much for Mon- more small surf in the 2ft range with a S’ly change likely during the day.

Another frontal system we mentioned on Mon now looks to develop further east and skip away quickly out of our swell window. We’ll have another look on Fri but at this stage it’s looking like not much of a swell producer- possibly sending some small S swell our way late next week.

Dual-centred blocking high pressure looks to move into the Tasman next week, suggesting some small tradeswell developing later next week although EC does offer up a small trough of low pressure in the Tasman late next week which may be a source of small SE swells.

We’ll see how all of this looks on Fri.

Seeya then.