South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 30th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor S swell possible later Sun into Mon for NENSW
• Background E’ly swell supplies a few small, very inconsistent sets from Thurs, persisting into next week
• Stronger S’ly swell likely Tues/Wed, favouring NENSW for size
• Small E’ly blend keeps surfable waves through the end of next week with NW-N winds
• Possibly a stronger S swell by late next weekend - check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday with a weak blend of NE windswell and background E swell to 1 occ. 2ft and clean conditions early before NW-N winds kicked in. A trough brought a S-SE change up as far as the border with winds switching back NE again late in the day. New S swell showed across NENSW today with 3-4ft of swell at S facing beaches (occ. bigger set at S swell magnets like Ballina) and small 1-2ft surf in SEQLD. Nice conditions early with light winds now tending mod/fresh NW-N.

S swell showing nicely across the MNC this morning with light winds

This weekend (Aug 31-Sep1)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Gales out of Bass Strait are less well aligned for swell propagation up the East Coast so looks like a pretty quiet weekend swell wise. A N’ly fetch now looks a notch stronger and extends up into Fraser Coast latitudes so we should see some workable NE windswell through Sat (mostly 2ft) extending into Sun morning.

Mod/fresh NW’lies tomorrow, will tend N through the a’noon, so you’ll need to hit the beachies early for a cleanish wave before it bedcines backbeaches only. There should be a rideable wave across most backbeaches with some minor background E swell also in the mix. 

Similar winds to Sat with a morning W/NW-NW flow tending N’ly at mod paces. Another small blend of NE windswell and background E swell offering up rideable 2ft surf on Sun, possibly with some minor S swell across the North Coast S swell magnets in the a’noon. Nothing special but there should be enough energy to ride a shortboard on Sun if you aren’t too fussy.

Next week (Sep2 onwards)

We’ll see a deep parent low finally moving below Tasmania early next week after generating multiple large swells for Victoria. As the low moves eastwards we should see a final frontal passage through Bass Strait and with a fetch SE of Tasmania, generating a sizey S swell for Tues/Wed next week (see below).

Mon looks small with minor S and E swells to 2ft with pre-frontal NW-W winds through SEQLD  and NENSW initially. We’ll see W-SW winds across the North Coast by lunch-time, tending SW through the a’noon. Those winds should sneak across the border around or just after dark- probably too late to clean up the N’ly sea state. 

We’ll see a much stronger S swell fill in Tues as well as plenty of S-S/SE winds as a concurrent high pressure ridge brings a SE surge. Expect mod/fresh SW-S winds early, quickly tending fresh S-S/SE through the day. That will generate some short range S/SE swell in the a’noon as well as longer period S swells which will arrive early in the day. Expect a windy 4-5ft of S swell across the North Coast regional Points with smaller 2-3ft surf building at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Some minor E swell will supply some small peelers on the Point. 

We’ll see more sizey S swell Wed with winds rapidly laying down as high pressure moves NE into the Northern Tasman. Get in early for a morning W-W/NW flow and expect winds to clock around N-NE by late morning, without too much strength. By late Wed an easing trend will be in play and with N’lies expected you’ll want to surf in the morning if possible.

Not much for the rest of the week, although background E swell should hold a floor of inconsistent 2ft sets at open beaches. High pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and an approaching inland trough will see winds tilt more NW-N through Thurs and Fri, possibly tending more W’ly over the weekend with a weak front.

That should generate some small S swell for next weekend. There is some indication of a stronger frontal passage early or later next weekend suggesting a stronger S swell pulse but model agreement is poor leading to low confidence on size and timing. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and report back Mon with the latest updates.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!