South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 26th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small flush of south swell late Tues (MNC) and Wed (FNNSW), tiny in SE Qld
• Better pulse of south swell late Thurs (MNC) and Fri (FNNSW), tiny in SE Qld
• More southerly pulses for the foreseeable future, i.e. extended run of small surf in SE Qld
• Background E’ly swell supplies a few small, very inconsistent sets from Thurs, persisting into early next week

Recap

A small weak blend of minor SE and S swells over the weekend with Sat in the 1-2ft range and Sun smaller 1-1.5ft (tops!). Conditions were OK, with clean mornings and light seabreezes in rthe a’noon. This morning has seen swell sources dry up with a very low energy ocean in the 0.5-1ft range and NW winds, tending mod N’ly during the day north of Byron with a weak troughy change bringing SE winds south of Byron. Only for beginners and logs today.

Not flat, but very tiny

This week (Aug26-30)

It’s not a great pattern for the East Coast with most of the swell generating winds under the continent and favouring southern states. The pattern of strong, zonal W’lies tied to polar lows and embedded cold fronts and weak mobile high pressure won’t offer much north of Seal Rocks but we will see some small S swells generated by gales out of Bass Strait this week with a mostly NW-W flow across southern NSW and NW-N in the sub-tropics. There’ll be a few small windows, favouring the MNC. A fetch well to the SE of Fiji this week will supply a small, background signal of E swell from Thurs/Fri this week.

In the short run we’ll see light, W’ly early tending SE-NE then N’ly in the a’noon at mod paces. Gales out of Bass Strait today should generate a small flush of S swell tomorrow, showing across the late a’noon on the MNC and possibly right on dark around Ballina with a few 2ft sets. Tiny in SEQLD.

That swell should be in the water for the rest of the North Coast Wed morning with a few 2 occ. 3ft sets, tiny in SEQLD but we’re expecting freshening pre-frontal N tending N/NW winds so it;’s hard to see anywhere other than a few S swell magnets offering up much in the way of a rideable wave.

Tricky winds for Thurs. Fresh N’lies in SEQLD, likely extend down to Byron. A shallow trough should bring a W tending SW-S flow across the MNC (typically these shallow S’ly changes stall between Coffs and Yamba). Some minor energy from the E is possible from a broad E’ly fetch feeding into a trough SE of Fiji early this week. Very inconsistent and only offering up an occ. 2ft set but possibly worth watching out for if you have a primo small wave bank in your back pocket. In the a’noon we should see another small bump from the S from gales to severe gales out of Bass Strait (see below) offering up 2 occ. 3ft surf across the MNC, showing on dark across Byron-Ballina.

That swell looks to hold into Fri with the biggest S swell of the week, offering 3ft sets across NENSW S facing beaches, remaining tiny in SEQLD where E swell will offer a slow 2 occ. 3ft set. Best winds early with a W-NW flow that will clock around N’ly again and freshen in the a’noon. 

This weekend (Aug 31-Sep1)

No change to the pattern over the weekend. Another blast of W’ly gales out of Bass Strait should provide a small kick in S swell later Sun.

The trough near Fiji remains persistent this week, even forming a broad low as it slowly drifts Eastwards. That should hold a very slow and inconsistent occ. 2ft set across the weekend, possibly a rogue 3 footer if you are lucky. 

So basically tiny surf Sat with the occ 2ft set from the E and a small blend Sun with 2 occ.3ft sets from the S added to the mix late in the day.

N’ly winds again for SEQLD and down across the border with a shallow trough hanging about the MNC likely to provide a variable flow- light offshore in the morning, tending to SE-NE breezes in the a’noon.

Next week (Sep2 onwards)

We have some model divergence early next week with ECMWF suggesting a more energetic outlook as fronts penetrate deeper into the Tasman with a NE movement and better aligned winds in the fetch.

That would suggest moderate S swells from Tues and a stronger SE wind surge from Mon into Tues and possibly Wed.
GFS maintains a more zonal flow next week (see below), with more minor S swells on offer from Tues and only a day of SE winds before they return to N’lies.

Long range background E swell should hold a very slow, pulsey 2ft signal with the occ. bigger set (long, long waits!).

Nothing major from from any of the models through next week so we’ll pencil in more minor S swells and NW winds and see how it looks as we move through the week.

Seeya Wed.