South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Thurs/Fri with N’ly quarter winds
• Tiny leftovers Fri with a S’ly change
• Becoming small this weekend
• Small E swells becoming established next week with N’ly episodes

Recap

Strong swell from the S/SE filled in yesterday with sets to 4-5ft across S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft in SEQLD  under early light winds which tended mod/fresh N’ly in the a’noon. Holding into this morning with sets to 4 occ. 5ft for the early now in NENSW becoming more 3-4ft. NW winds are tending mod/fresh N’ly today.

S swell magnets in NENSW still showing strong sets this morning

This week (Aug 21-23)

Very spring-like synoptic chart with mobile high pressure moving NE through the Tasman and a N’ly flow across most of the eastern seaboard. A strong zonal pattern with embedded fronts and troughs is under the continent and moving eastwards. That pattern is briefly interrupted by a trough and front today before resetting again over the weekend. No major swell sources on the radar so we’ll see if we can find anything flukey to work with.

In the short run todays N’ly flow looks to continue into tomorrow at mod/fresh paces so it’ll be a mess across most beaches with only a handful; of clean waves at the best backbeaches. There should be some workable leftovers from the S/SE with inconsistent 2-3ft surf in the morning, fading out to 2ft or less in the a’noon.

That signal should bottom out Fri with a very occ. 2footer at the best swell magnets and tiny surf elsewhere. A trough brings a welcome S’ly change and it looks to be in before first light across the Northern Rivers, reaching the border early morning and the Sunshine Coast mid/late morning.

Nothing much to recommend Fri except a small grovel at swell magnets.

This weekend (Aug 24-25)

The lack of action continues over the weekend. A weak front passing into the Tasman Thurs/Fri now looks weaker and more zonal (W-E) than it did on Mon so we can discount it as a swell source. 

We should see light winds Sat morning with land breezes tending light S-SE before clocking around E-NE in the a’noon. Not much surf to speak of- just some minor SE windswell is possible, fractionally bigger in the a’noon but highly unlikely to reach 2ft.

Similar surf for Sun with just slightly more SE-E swell in the water (1-2ft) and winds shifting NW as a trough approaches. That could see a few small, dribbly waves worth a slide if you are keen. 

Next week (Aug 26 onwards)

Small, weak surf looks to extend though most of next week. Absent any swell sources, and with the zonal flow extending through our near southern swell window we’re looking at NW-W winds and tiny surf with minor S swells to 1-2ft at best at S swell magnets for at least Mon-Tues next week. 

Slim chance we may see a slight increase Wed from W’ly winds out if Bass Strait.

Those winds freshen again and we may see more of the same but bigger Thurs if things pan out.

A distant tradewind fetch feeding into a trough in Fijian longitudes should supply some small background E’ly energy through next week. We should see small, pulsey E swells build in through Tues/Wed, offering up very inconsistent 2ft surf with the occ. 3ft set and persisting into Thurs/Fri.

We’ll see how all these flukey sources look on Fri and hopefully have better news to impart.

Seeya then.