South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri August 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E/NE swells Sat, with strengthening  offshore winds
• Tiny in SEQLD Sun, likely building S swells in NENSW later in the a’noon with W’ly winds
• Increasing S/SE swells Mon as trough of low pressure deepens in Tasman
• S/SE swells easing Tues with NW-N winds
• Fresh pulse of S/SE’ly groundswell Wed with NW-N winds
• Easing S swells Thurs/Fri with N’ly quarter winds
• Becoming small into next weekend

Recap

Improving surf from the E-E/NE has persisted as a tropical looking system plays out in the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. Surf was in the 4-5ft range yesterday with lumpy/bumpy morning conditions before a weak S’ly change managed to clean things up on the Points. Down a notch this morning but still the occ. 3-4ft wave with nice clean conditions under light land breezes which are expected to tend variable and end up light N’ly. 

Quality was mixed depending on local sandbanks but a few fun waves to be had from cleaner but easing E/NE swells

This weekend (Aug 17-18)

Only minor changes to the weekend f/cast. A new trough of low pressure moves east of Tasmania and reinforces an existing trough, initially driving a W’ly flow across NSW, strongest south of the border, with NW winds for the early. We’ll see fun leftovers from the E/NE-NE Sat morning- in the 2-3ft range and they should hang in until the a’noon before easing off.

Sunday will be a different story. A cold front sweeps up along the edge of the complex low system and brings freshening SW winds through the day. These winds should start off W’ly and once they clock around SW, end up fresh SW-S. The caveat is we may see a small troughy region off SEQLD direct a SE-NE flow in the a’noon. Proximate winds will generate a pretty bog standard winter-style spike in short range S swell. Expect some S’ly energy to 2ft in the morning building to 3-4ft in the a’noon across NENSW, not much at all showing in SEQLD. Just a chance of a 2ft set at S swell magnets close to the border.

Next week (Aug 19 onwards)

We’re still looking at S’ly to S/SE’ly swells next week but the overall evolution of the storms is now not as favourable with more of the energy aimed at Pacific targets. High pressure moving SE of Tasmania on Mon will hold a weakening ridge up the NSW Coast into SEQLD so we’ll see S’ly winds- likely SW for a period early morning, before winds ease and wash out to light SE breezes in the a’noon. Mod S swells to 4ft at S facing beaches in NENSW will grade smaller 2ft at S facing beaches and northern corners in SEQLD.. 

Winds shift N’ly o/night as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman in a more typical seasonal position. We should see early NW breezes tend N then N/NE through the day. Very spring-like winds. Leftover sets to 3ft at S facing beaches should provide some fun waves at a few select backbeaches, blown out elsewhere.

A better quality S/SE pulse looks to fill in o/night Tues and be in the water for Wed morning.That pulse looks to hold through Wed with quality 3-4ft  surf. Tricky N’ly winds again though will confine clean waves to a handful of backbeaches. Otherwise, expect N’ly scarring on the Points even for the dawny.

Easing swells for the rest of next week. 

A frontal system passing through Bass Strait and into the Tasman next week may offer a small spike in S swell. At the moment it doesn’t look significant, likely producing a brief pulse of S swell in the 2-3ft range Sat, easing Sun. 

A stronger low pressure system passing in behind it may supply some S swell late in the weekend or early next week. (see below).

High pressure sliding NE into the Tasman may supply some small E tradeswell into next weekend or early next week. 

Neither of these swells look noteworthy but we’ll see how the look when we come back on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!