Some size from the S for south of the border, with a spell of tiny waves next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 19th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small leftover S swells Sat in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD
- Stronger S swell Sun, sizey in NENSW with a few fun waves at SEQLD S swell magnets
- Fun leftovers on Mon at S facing beaches, sizey in NENSW through the morning
- Tiny/flat surf likely from Tues next week with light W’ly-NW’ly winds and a’noon seabreezes
- Possible small E’ly trade swell from Thurs next week in SEQLD- still low confidence, check back Mon for latest updates
Recap
S swell yesterday offered up some fun 3-4ft (occ.5ft sets) at S facing beaches in NENSW with S swell magnets in SEQLD offering up 2 occ. 3ft sets. Nice and clean under offshore winds. A small reinforcing signal today is supplying some 3ft surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW- smaller 2ft in SEQLD- under an offshore flow , expected to tend more NW through the day.
This weekend (July 20-21)
Not much change for the weekend f/cast. We’ll see that W’ly flow really strengthen tomorrow as another strong frontal system and cold outbreak sweeps up over the SE of the continent. Fresh to strong W’lies all day, more W/NW early in the morning will be the story of the day. Not much swell about north of the border. Todays small S signal will hold into tomorrow supplying a few fun 3ft sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW, easing during the day.
We’ll see a much stronger S swell signal fill in during Sun. A trough of low pressure and front rapidly push into the Tasman during Sat with the low deepening rapidly. Gales will be short-lived as the system is whisked away to the NE but sufficient to whip up a spike in S swell Sun. Expect smaller 3-4ft surf in the morning across NENSW (2ft in SEQLD), building to 4-6ft across S facing beaches during the middle of the day. W tending W/SW winds should clock around SW-S/SW before ending mod S’ly by close of play.
Next week (July 22 onwards)
Monday looks like a fun day for S swells under offshore winds. We should see a few 4-5ft sets on offer through the morning across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches, dropping back to 3ft or so in the a’noon with a light seabreeze developing.
A couple of very quiet days after that. A large, slow moving high over the Eastern half of the continent will supply settled conditions with light winds before gently sliding into the Tasman. Morning offshores and light/mod a’noon NE seabreezes likely Tues-Thurs and into Fri.
There’s no real swell sources at all to look out for from the South. We may just see enough traces of S swell to stop S facing beaches from going dead flat during Tues-Thurs
Everywhere else will be lucky to be ankle high- and mostly looking more like the Mediterranean than the Tasman Sea. Get the snorkel and/or fishing gear out.
ECMWF has a slightly stronger tradewind style fetch extending southwards from the tropics into the Central Coral Sea. If this comes off, we should start to see some rideable E’ly swells favouring the Sunshine Coast in the 2ft range possibly as early as Thurs and extending into Fri.
GFS has a weaker, barely there fetch , that would maintain tiny surf.
We’ll see how that looks on Mon.
Our next swell source after that looks to be next weekend as another front and cold outbreak looms.
We may see some pre-frontal N’ly winds develop with sufficient strength too whip up some NE windswell next weekend- more likely on the Mid North Coast. Failing that, once the system moves into the Tasman there’s reasonable confidence we’ll see a S swell with GFS, at this early stage, suggesting a much stronger signal than EC. We’ll see how model runs play out over the weekend and report back on Mon with a clearer focus on the long term.
In the meantime , make a deposit in the stoke account this weekend if you can - might have to live on the interest for a while.
Catch you Mon and have a great weekend!
Comments
A slow, shoulder high wave on low tide at lunch today. Just me and an Osprey who caught a rather healthy Bream.
Watched a Sea Eagle catch a Bream form the aptly named Bream Hole on low tide last week. 10 minutes of circling and aborted dives then breakfast!. Made my morning.
I bet you usually refer to it by its other name, boatie.
depends, it was more in the corner named after local shaper who may or may not still have his original teeth
The Gold Coast has a SSW swell on Sunday?
You're looking at the raw model output (as that's a prediction as to what will occur out at sea). Our surf height calculation disregards these values, and only uses swell trains that are relevant to the coast.
Byron has a westerly swell on Sunday morning, must be coming from Nimbin or somewhere.
Again, you're looking at the raw model output - the westerly swells is only four seconds - just windchop - and will be generated by strong westerly winds.
You won't see it at the coast (hence why it's disregarded by our surf height estimation) but if you were sitting in a boat a couple of Kay's out to sea you'd certainly experience it.
Yes I thought that was probably the explanation, just looks a bit funny on first look.
Hey Ben what’s the source of the Swell Trains data on the Surf Report page.
It’s a really useful go to resource I look at all the time. Cheers
It's our wave model that we run internally.
How South is this swell preiction for Sunday. Crowdy Bouy is calling 199Deg. that's heading out to sea???
Super weird morning of south swell, nothing happening on the Tweed but Coffs seems to have some OK waves.
Dead flat on the Goldy and Tweed an hour ago.
Yep. How long you over for?
Another 8 days.
Found shoulder high right runners this arvo at a new to me spot. Happy days!
On the tweed IB?
Just south :-)
Really, I'm just south (30kms south) and it was flat. Had to go to Ballina area to get something waste high.
Hope you get a few moments mate
Fun little weekend at S swell magnets here.
Even a few small peelers this afternoon.
The magnets kept threatening to get blown out from the south but never happened.
Few short blusters from the SW kept correcting back to W.