Some size from the S for south of the border, with a spell of tiny waves next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small leftover S swells Sat in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD
  • Stronger S swell Sun, sizey in  NENSW with a few fun waves at SEQLD S swell magnets
  • Fun leftovers on Mon at S facing beaches, sizey in NENSW through the morning
  • Tiny/flat surf likely from Tues next week with light  W’ly-NW’ly  winds and a’noon seabreezes
  • Possible small E’ly trade swell from Thurs next week in SEQLD- still low confidence, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

S swell yesterday offered up some fun 3-4ft (occ.5ft sets) at S facing beaches in NENSW with S swell magnets in SEQLD offering up 2 occ. 3ft sets. Nice and clean under offshore winds. A small reinforcing signal today is supplying some 3ft surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW- smaller 2ft in SEQLD- under an offshore flow , expected to tend more NW through the day.

Small, fun S swell making it across the border

This weekend (July 20-21)

Not much change for the weekend f/cast. We’ll see that W’ly flow really strengthen tomorrow as another strong frontal system and cold outbreak sweeps up over the SE of the continent. Fresh to strong W’lies all day, more W/NW early in the morning will be the story of the day. Not much swell about north of the border. Todays small S signal will hold into tomorrow supplying a few fun 3ft sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW, easing during the day.

We’ll see a much stronger S swell signal fill in during Sun. A trough of low pressure and front rapidly push into the Tasman during Sat with the low deepening rapidly. Gales will be short-lived as the system is whisked away to the NE but sufficient to whip up a spike in S swell Sun. Expect smaller 3-4ft surf in the morning across NENSW (2ft in SEQLD), building to 4-6ft across S facing beaches during the middle of the day. W tending W/SW winds should clock around SW-S/SW before ending mod S’ly by close of play. 

Next week (July 22 onwards)

Monday looks like a fun day for S swells under offshore winds. We should see a few 4-5ft sets on offer through the morning across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches, dropping back to 3ft or so in the a’noon with a light seabreeze developing.

A couple of very quiet days after that. A large, slow moving high over the Eastern half of the continent will supply settled conditions with light winds before gently sliding into the Tasman. Morning offshores and light/mod a’noon NE seabreezes likely Tues-Thurs and into Fri. 

There’s no real swell sources at all to look out for from the South. We may just see enough traces of S swell to stop S facing beaches from going dead flat during Tues-Thurs

Everywhere else will be lucky to be ankle high- and mostly looking more like the Mediterranean than the Tasman Sea. Get the snorkel and/or fishing gear out. 

ECMWF has a slightly stronger tradewind style fetch extending southwards from the tropics into the Central Coral Sea. If this comes off, we should start to see some rideable E’ly swells favouring the Sunshine Coast in the 2ft range possibly as early as Thurs and extending into Fri.

GFS has a weaker, barely there fetch , that would maintain tiny surf. 

We’ll see how that looks on Mon.

Our next swell source after that looks to be next weekend as another front and cold outbreak looms.

We may see some pre-frontal N’ly winds develop with sufficient strength too whip up some NE windswell next weekend- more likely on the Mid North Coast. Failing that, once the system moves into the Tasman there’s reasonable confidence we’ll see a S swell with GFS, at this early stage, suggesting a much stronger signal than EC. We’ll see how model runs play out over the weekend and report back on Mon with a clearer focus on the long term.

In the meantime , make a deposit in the stoke account this weekend if you can - might have to live on the interest for a while.

Catch you Mon and have a great weekend!

Comments

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 19 Jul 2024 at 3:11pm

A slow, shoulder high wave on low tide at lunch today. Just me and an Osprey who caught a rather healthy Bream.

boatie's picture
boatie's picture
boatie Friday, 19 Jul 2024 at 5:38pm

Watched a Sea Eagle catch a Bream form the aptly named Bream Hole on low tide last week. 10 minutes of circling and aborted dives then breakfast!. Made my morning.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 19 Jul 2024 at 6:08pm

I bet you usually refer to it by its other name, boatie.

boatie's picture
boatie's picture
boatie Friday, 19 Jul 2024 at 6:33pm

depends, it was more in the corner named after local shaper who may or may not still have his original teeth

Juliang's picture
Juliang's picture
Juliang Friday, 19 Jul 2024 at 4:56pm

The Gold Coast has a SSW swell on Sunday?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 20 Jul 2024 at 6:14am

You're looking at the raw model output (as that's a prediction as to what will occur out at sea). Our surf height calculation disregards these values, and only uses swell trains that are relevant to the coast.

Juliang's picture
Juliang's picture
Juliang Friday, 19 Jul 2024 at 10:54pm

Byron has a westerly swell on Sunday morning, must be coming from Nimbin or somewhere.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 20 Jul 2024 at 6:17am

Again, you're looking at the raw model output - the westerly swells is only four seconds - just windchop - and will be generated by strong westerly winds.

You won't see it at the coast (hence why it's disregarded by our surf height estimation) but if you were sitting in a boat a couple of Kay's out to sea you'd certainly experience it.

Juliang's picture
Juliang's picture
Juliang Saturday, 20 Jul 2024 at 9:41am

Yes I thought that was probably the explanation, just looks a bit funny on first look.

back beach's picture
back beach's picture
back beach Saturday, 20 Jul 2024 at 6:18pm

Hey Ben what’s the source of the Swell Trains data on the Surf Report page.
It’s a really useful go to resource I look at all the time. Cheers

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 20 Jul 2024 at 7:22pm

It's our wave model that we run internally.

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 6:55am

How South is this swell preiction for Sunday. Crowdy Bouy is calling 199Deg. that's heading out to sea???

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 9:04am

Super weird morning of south swell, nothing happening on the Tweed but Coffs seems to have some OK waves.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 2:13pm

Dead flat on the Goldy and Tweed an hour ago.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 4:12pm

Yep. How long you over for?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 5:07pm

Another 8 days.

Found shoulder high right runners this arvo at a new to me spot. Happy days!

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 5:13pm

On the tweed IB?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 5:22pm

Just south :-)

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 5:41pm

Really, I'm just south (30kms south) and it was flat. Had to go to Ballina area to get something waste high.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 5:37pm

Hope you get a few moments mate

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 6:11pm

Fun little weekend at S swell magnets here.
Even a few small peelers this afternoon.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 21 Jul 2024 at 6:31pm

The magnets kept threatening to get blown out from the south but never happened.
Few short blusters from the SW kept correcting back to W.