South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell spike Thurs, favouring NENSW for size with fresh W tending SW winds
• Easing S swells Fri with some fun waves at S magnets in NENSW
• More S swell Sun, favouring NENSW and mostly tiny in SEQLD
• Tiny/flat surf likely from next week with  W’ly winds
• Possible small E’ly trade swell from mid next week in SEQLD- low confidence, check back Fri

Recap

E’ly swells held in yesterday morning with sets to 3ft brushed by very stiff W’lies. The tide swallowed most of it in the a’noon. Stiff W’lies again this morning, which will shift W/SW late in the day or o/night as a north-wards moving low centre slingshots a fetch up the coast. Small waves this morning to 2ft at swell magnets and freezing cold W’ly winds keeping all but the very keen at bay after the last run of swell.

Still a few small lines of swell about

This week (July 17-19)

We still have a dual centred (dumbbell) low in the Tasman with one centre currently swinging northwards up the NSW Coast and the other remaining close to Tasmania. This is driving stiff W’ly tending SW’ly winds all the way up to the tropics - even New Caledonia is seeing this stiff SW flow! The current northwards moving low and proximate fetch will generate a quick spike in S swell before it quickly moves away with following fronts now looking less aligned for S swell production. 

In the short run we’ll see a spike in S swell tomorrow. It’s a very directional and close to the coast S swell so NENSW will see 4-5ft at S exposed breaks, with not much getting north of the border. The most reliable S magnets may see some 2 occ. 3ft sets.  Early W-W/SW winds will tend SW then veer more S/SW through the a’noon under the influence of the northern extremity of the fetch. 

Friday looks like a fun day for S facing beaches in NENSW as winds shift from W/SW to more W/NW and even NW-N in response to an approaching front. The southern low will be generating SW-S winds through later Wed into Thurs. It’s a tight fetch, not perfectly aligned or in the swell window, but it should be sufficient to hold 3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW- tiny in SEQLD. 

This weekend (July 20-21)

Saturdays front now looks much more zonal (W-E) so we’ll expect W’ly to W/NW’ly winds to stiffen up through the day. Small leftover S swells should hold some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, easing in the a’noon, with tiny/flat surf elsewhere. 

Sun sees another spike in S swell that will favour NENSW and barely show in SEQLD. Gales out of Bass Strait Sat (see below) and extending off the South Coast later in the day produce a refracted S swell that should show in the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW. S swells of this nature do tend to be very flukey. Showing strongly in Coffs, for example, and not in Ballina. Or vice versa. We’ll peg it as a medium confidence event for S facing beaches in NENSW with only minor energy (2ft or so) at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Offshore winds most of the day with a chance for light SE-NE breezes in the a’noon.

Next week (July 22 onwards)

Not much change to the outlook next week. Large low pressure gyres to the East of Tasmania and in the Bight with no swell generating winds in any of our swell windows for the short term. A weak high in the Northern Tasman next week may generate some small E’ly trade-swell for SEQLD mid-late next week but nothing over 2ft. More likely it will be tiny/flat next week.

Unless that changes we’ll see a few small leftovers Mon, topping out at 2ft at S magnets then tiny surf until Wed/Thurs under offshore W’ly winds with a’noon NE seabreezes. If we don’t see any small trade swell develop from mid week we’ll expect that tiny/flat surf to continue right into next weekend.

A modest frontal system looks to push into the Tasman Fri or Sat next week, suggesting a small S swell later next weekend for NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD.

We’ll see how that looks on Fri.

Seeya then.