South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S-SE winds remain over the weekend as monster high in Bight holds firm ridge up the coast- slowly easing Sun
• Easing S/SE swell over the weekend with E/SE trade-style swell holding fun waves
• S’ly groundswell pulses early next week Mon, biggest Tues, easing Wed
• Likely another round of unseasonal E’ly tradewind style swell next week, with potential for good surf on the Points and beachies under light winds
• E’ly swells build later next week under “trough-block” scenario with light winds expected- check back Mon for latest revisions

Recap

Fun sized surf on the Points yesterday with the E/SE swell component dropping out of the mix so SEQLD generally saw an easing trend, from 3-4ft to 2-3ft. Winds were mod/fresh S-SE. Similar conditions today with squalls and S-SE winds, although some areas saw a SW flow early. S/SE swells are a notch bigger in NENSW in the 3-5ft range with the occ. bigger set but sheltered Points are much smaller. Generally speaking it’s been a surfably mediocre week with a few better quality options on the Points.

Swells tended more S/SE with brief windows of cleaner conditions early

This weekend (July 6-7)

Just a few small tweaks to the weekend f/cast. We’re still being dominated by the record breaking (1044hPa) high in the Bight, although it is  very slowly easing as it moves towards Tasmania. Coastal pressure gradients are taking a little longer to ease than expected but we should start to see a drop in windspeeds through Sun a’noon. Sat still looks pretty wind affected with the sea state unlikely to have settled down after a week of constant S-SE wind. There should be a few semi-clean options around in the morning in the 3-5ft range, favouring NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast, with mostly SE swell. That will see much smaller peelers on the Points. 

Winds start to ease into Sun with a morning SW breeze tending mod SE then light E’ly. The prevailing SE swell will have dropped  back to 3 occ. 4ft in NENSW,  smaller 2 occ 3ft in SEQLD. It probably won’t be clean enough for the beachies to fire so small peelers on the Points and a few raggedy options across the beachies, cleanest in the morning. 

Next week (July 8 onwards)

By Mon the high should be right in the middle of the Tasman, with light morning offshore winds shifting light SE-E during the day and tending NE Tues as a trough approaches from the west. As mentioned by Craig the polar storm track is being steered into the New Zealand corridor sending L-XL surf to Pacific targets. Sideband energy from the fetch before it gets steered by the long wave trough will supply small S groundswell pulses and later Mon should see a notch more energy with 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches and reefs. That energy should extend into Tues a’noon before easing. Small E-E/SE swell should hold 2-3ft surf Mon, up a notch (slightly) into the 3ft range Tues. Winds should stay light enough Tues for some fun beachies across the entire region.

The second half of next week should have more of a summer flavour as far as swell direction goes with a signal of E’ly swell developing. Winds should be favourable as a weak, troughy gradient tends mostly offshore W-W/SW, tending SW-S Thurs into Fri as a frontal system pushes through NSW. Winds will be swirling around the trough so we’ll fine-tune on Mon but there’s good odds they will be favourably light through the second half of next week as the swell builds.

The “trough block” pattern mentioned on Wed looks to set-up as the clearing trough Mon sets up a long N-S oriented line in the Tasman to Coral Seas and focusses a long E’ly fetch through this vast area. Windspeeds are the limiting factor but we should see a steady increase in E-E/NE swell from Thurs into next weekend- likely building from 3-4ft Thurs into the 3-5ft range by next weekend as a conservative estimate. There’s medium/high confidence in that outlook and winds should be favourable. That swell should persist into early week 15/7 with a possible return S swell on the cards once a front/low moves into the Tasman. 

Come back in on Mon and we’ll fine-tune size and local winds.

Until then, have a great weekend!