South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE swells Tues with winds tending SE 
• SE winds all week with small but workable SE-E/SE swells
• S groundswell Fri with light winds, favouring NENSW S facing beaches
• Sizey S swell on the cards later Sat, into Sun with fresh S winds
• More S swells next week, with S-SE winds

Recap

Plenty of fun swell over the weekend from sources in the Tasman and far southern ocean and ranging from E to S-S/SE. Size was in the 3-4ft range across both days with a few bigger 4ft+ sets at S facing beaches on Sun . Conditions were complex as a coastal low formed in the trough line with light winds tending E/SE-E/NE on Sat and light offshore winds tending SE-NE on Sunday. Size is still in the 3ft range with the odd bigger set today with a morning W-SW flow set to tend SW-S’ly through the day. 

Winds shifted offshore Sun with plenty of atmospherics to enjoy

This week (May 13-17)

The low which formed off the NSW Central Coast yesterday is hovering almost due E of Sydney, generating a SW-S flow along the Eastern Seaboard as far north as the sub-tropics. The low is expected to drift off and dissipate as a new high moves in over NSW at a more northerly latitude compared to the recent pattern. Small swells from this low will ease through the week with some deep polar activity sending more small S swell wrap up the Pipe before a stronger frontal intrusion this weekend brings a sizier S swell with plenty of S wind. We’ll see some small S/SE-SE swell as the new high pressure ridge builds windfield in the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman but this will be smaller and weaker than previous swells of this ilk.

In the short run we’ll see winds from the low continue to influence local conditions with a morning SW flow tending S-SW for most of the morning then mod/fresh S’ly after lunch. Surf-wise as long period swell trains drop out of the mix we’ll see a mix of shorter period swells from winds feeding into, and exiting the southern flank of the low, primarily SE with some short range S swell in the mix. Expect some 2-3ft sets through the morning but there will be an easing trend in play after lunch.

Winds should tend SW-S then SE on Wed as the low moves away and high pressure moves over Central NSW and builds a ridge up the sub-tropical coast. We’ll see some modest SE swell to 2 occ. 3ft develop through the day.

SE winds for the rest of the week as high pressure drifts off the NSW Central Coast with continuing modest amounts of SE-E/SE swell to 2 occ. 3ft a notch stronger on the Sunshine Coast.

Small swells from the SE-E/SE continue into Fri as winds relax in the swell window. We’ll see some 2 occ. 3ft surf in the morning with widespread land breezes and clean conditions. A fetch of gales passing under Tasmania Wed (see below) will see some long period S swell make landfall with a few 3ft sets across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller in SEQLD.

This weekend (May18-19)

Another front Fri looks to track much more aggressively into the Tasman this weekend, with fresh S/SW-S winds developing through Sat and a steep a’noon increase in S swell on the cards for the MNC to the border. Still some model divergence with GFS favouring a much more bullish outlook and size building up into the 5-6ft range with bigger sets at exposed S facing spots in NENSW. EC would suggest a more bog standard S swell in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches. S’ly winds are common to both models. 

Sunday depends on how this front evolves with GFS suggesting a low forming later Sat and moving offshore, with plenty of size from the S again (6ft+ across NENSW) and fresh S-SW winds easing as the low moves off. We’ll see how it looks Wed because models have consistently over-estimated potential low pressure development in the Taman Sea this autumn and size downgrades have been by far the most common outcome. Under the more subdued EC prognosis we’d expect strong but easing S swell Sun with easing S’ly winds, possibly tending SW again as another front pushes into the Tasman. 

Next week (May 20 onwards)

We’ll see S swells of varying magnitude next week, likely persisting at least into the middle and possibly all of next working week as a series of fronts push into the Tasman.

As per the weekend f/cast there’ll still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the strength of these fronts and whether the weekend front forms a surface low over the weekend. 

We’ll peg in moderate/sizey S swells early next week with S quadrant winds and sharpen focus on Wed as we get more model clarity.

Seeya then.