South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized SE-E/SE swell holding week with SE winds favouring the Points- possibly some beachies for the early
• Winds backing down this weekend with a small boost in E/SE swell Sat
• Long period S swell showing in NENSW Sat PM, holding Sun
• Small E swell holds into the medium term 
• SE winds next week, but becoming light from mid week

Recap

Mostly short/mid period E/SE swell built through yesterday and eased  into today. Size around 3-4ft yesterday (occ. bigger set) with fresh SE winds suitable only for the Points. Size eased a notch from that source into today (still some 3ft sets), and there was a window of cleaner conditions for the early with W winds before the SE flow kicked back in and blew out most spots. 

Enough offshore this morning for a window of fun beachies before the sou-easter got up

This week (May 8-10)

No great change to this very sluggish pattern as strong high pressure near Tasmania gets reinforced by a new cell and this peanut high straddles Tasmania before inching into the Tasman. The resulting high pressure ridge is leading to deep onshore flows and a trough along the coast is expected to move offshore Sun and form a broad trough of low pressure early next week. That should see improved conditions north of the low pressure trough. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see winds hold from the SE through Thurs, easing a notch into Fri. Pressure gradients have been just weak enough for morning SW breezes to  develop across NENSW and the Gold Coast and this is likely to continue. Lighter SW-S winds on the Sunshine Coast.

Surf-wise we’ll see more of the same E/SE swell hanging in the 3ft range, offering up some fun surf on the Points and a few semi-clean options early on the beachies. Some long period S swell is likely to supply 3ft sets across NENSW S exposed breaks but given the local wind conditions it’ll be hard to access the size and juice on offer.

This weekend (May11-12)

Looks like an improved though still tricky outlook for the weekend, as a trough deepens and moves offshore from the Central NSW coast and a coastal trough lingers off the Far North Coast. 

Sat is still a bit of an iffy prospect but there’s better odds we’ll  light winds and possibly a wind reversal (offshore) depending on how things play out. Morning land breezes are highly likely and they should tend to light SE breezes in the a’noon.

E quadrant swell from disconnected fetches  in the Tasman should see a small boost in size to 3ft occ. bigger set and long period S swell from a storm force polar low sends inconsistent sets to 3-4ft in the a’noon across NENSW. 

Sunday looks similarly tricky for winds as the trough of low pressure swirls around offshore from the Central NSW Coast. We should see light winds, with periods of offshore flow likely. We may see areas of NE breeze most likely north of the border. We’ll finesse this outlook Fri. Surf wise, workable E swells to 3ft with S swell throwing up the odd 3-4ft set at S exposed breaks in NENSW, 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches.

Next week (May 13 onwards)

Models now seem in reasonable agreement that the trough of low pressure will drift off into the Tasman (see below) with no real deepening of any significance.

If this holds, we’ll see a general easing trend set in with Mon holding 2-3ft surf before softening during the day and a S-SE flow depending on the movement of the low.

SE winds look to increase Tues which ay bring a small increase in short range swell, nothing of any real size or quality.

Easing surf then sets in from Wed with a small E/SE swell from winds through the Northern Tasman and South Pacific keeping a floor under wave heights. Likely 2 to very occ. 3ft Wed, dropping further through Thurs.

Winds look good though with very weak pressure gradients seeing light land and seabreezes. 

Further ahead and nothing amazing on the radar. We may see some S swell into next weekend although models are very divergent.

The next high cell is tracking well to the south of the Bight, suggesting another SE surge early week 20/5.

We’ll see how all that looks on Fri, as well as dial in the weekend wind f/cast.

Seeya then.