Pumping surf as full spectrum autumn pattern plays out
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri April 12th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Pumping SE swell Sat, renewing again Sun, biggest in NENSW
- Long period S swells in the mix, showing best in NENSW Fri and over the weekend
- Light winds on the weekend, tending E-NE in the a’noon
- Low levels of E swell hanging in there, up a notch from mid next week as well
- Light winds and S swells into next week
- Dynamic outlook late next week into the weekend with building E swells from infeed into coastal trough- check back Mon for updates
Recap
Plenty of size since Wed with size to 4-6ft yesterday across NENSW from the S/SE, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with some S swell magnets in the 3-4ft range (occ. bigger sets). Conditions were clean early under Swings before stiff S’lies kicked in and reduced clean conditions to the Points. Swell direction has tended more favourably SE today, with some E’ly swell trains in the mix today and with the extra E in the angle, as well as long period S, there’s a more even distribution of size in the 4-5ft range (3-4ft in SEQLD) with a morning offshore breeze now tending SE. In short, it’s pretty much pumping across a wide range of spots this morning.
D-Bah on the pump as swells built yesterday
Smaller on the Points but the odd sick one sneaking through
This weekend (Apr 13-14)
We’ve still got the intense Tasman low in the picture sending plenty of strong SE swell our way, located now off the west coast of the South Island, with a large slow moving high SW of WA and powerful fronts under the SE of the continent. A low in Tongan longitudes has intensified with more E swell on the way from this system. As pressure gradients ease in the Tasman Sea we’ll see light winds establish across the region with a mix of SE-E swells and long period S pulses.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. Still solid and pumping for Sat morning with offshore winds. SE-E/SE and S swell should hold 4-5ft surf with the occ. bigger 6ft set across NENSW smaller 3-4ft (occ. 5ft set) into SEQLD and a mix of mid and long period S swells should be reinforced later in the a’noon with sets up to 3-4ft at S facing beaches in NENSW. Expect light/variable winds through the a’noon- SE north of the border and more E-E/NE south of Byron.
Morning offshores for Sun with winds tending variable then light NE in the a’noon across the region.
We should see a renewal in SE swells from 3-4ft Sun morning to 4-5ft by midday with another pulse of long period S boosting wave heights back to 3-4ft at S facing beaches and some outliers possible at S swell magnets. In short, there’l be a wide spread of pumping surf available this weekend. We’ll see SE swell easing through the close of play.
Next week (Apr 15 onwards)
Offshore winds into Mon morning with Sundays pulse still lingering and offering 3ft surf at S exposed breaks with some bigger sets at S swell magnets in NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft surf in SEQLD at open beaches.
Pressure gradients now look weak through Tues and Wed, although we’ll see a weak NE flow develop Mon/Tues and possibly extending into Wed. We’ll see how those winds look on Mon as a weak troughy area off the coast may change the flow depending on it’s evolution. Either way they should be workable for the beachies with morning offshore breezes.
More S groundswell expected next week, with a renewal in S swell late Tues (across the MNC), Wed elsewhere from a deep low passing under Tas later Sun into Mon. We should see size back up into the 3ft range with occ. 4ft sets at S exposed breaks late Tues, holding into Wed.
A sub-tropical low fires up a distant E’ly fetch this week in Tongan longitudes and despite the long travel distances, swell periods will be high enough to ensure some very inconsistent 3ft sets showing later Tues and holding through Wed into Thurs.
Further ahead and the synoptic pattern still looks dynamic. A small TC currently formed in the Coral Sea (TC Paul) won’t be a swell source, but remnants from this system may anchor an E’ly fetch in the Coral Sea. Closer to home, a trough forming along the coast may see another E/NE-NE infeed ( a variation of a black nor-easter pattern) later next week. Under current modelling we may see onshore winds and increasing E’ly-E/NE’ly swells later next week. A tropical low may form in the Vanuatu/Fiji corridor during this period, with uncertain surf potential.
It’s basically a full spectrum autumn pattern with lots of swell sources to keep an eye on.
Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.
For now, enjoy the weekend of waves!
Comments
Sick!!
Some good ones around today.
That is an exciting forecast. I have already pre-warned the wife of early nights and an empty house early morning!
Ibuprofen stocked
Get off the inflammatory food and piss and throw that ibuprofen in the bin
Chuck out the vegetable oils and seed oils or use em to lubricate machinery as they were originally intended. Big cause of inflammation. Eat plenny of grass fed red meat: The ultimate health food.
Anyone else up at a sparrows when you knows it's pumpin and wake up instantly fired up to get out there? Been an unreal last 4 or 5 days at certain spots in NNSW. Besy this time of the year, cool mornings, clear (sorta) skies and warm waters.
It's so nice and consistent I'm not even thinking about waves elsewhere in the world!
Maybe it's the tide, but it's half the size in Cooly now compared to dawn
Similar story in LeBa
Fully pumping where I went this morning, seemed Lully on the the low tide change then started pumping wave after wave as the tide pushed.
Deffo some E swell, some S and SE.
I think because such a shallow bank, so many swell trains were breaking.
Looked at about 6.30 , ‘twas shiite , sunny coast north of the river
Shiteshine Coast.
I find it curious that some on here seem to enjoy knocking the sunny coast and complain about how it’s a hoax etc.
Obviously everyone has different preferences and their own unique contexts but perhaps a little perspective could help.
There are many places in the world with far less consistent, warm water waves than the sunny coast.
Is it a problem of comparison? Being neighbours to the Goldie, northern NSW?
I work with people with pain and injuries and many wish they still had the opportunity to still enjoy the waves here.
Anyway, I for one have had great waves on the sunny coast and I’m super thankful to be able to call it home.
Obviously there are advantages to it being knocked all the time and I’m not wanting more crowds but the negative attitudes get a little tiresome.
Wherever you live, I hope you are able to enjoy the waves legends. Keep the stoke alive
I’m fucking spewing I read that post all the way to the end.
Where's sprout?
Fiji, today was fucking pumping, yewww!!!!
Onya sprout
As has always been the case....once the swell source turns south we pretty much need 3 separate reports A: Sth of Moreton = Gold nuggets B: Nth of Moreton = Dog shit and C: Reports from SCers who've pissed off chasing decent waves from Indo to Fiji.
The problem is we all get the invites the same party and excited as to how greats its gonna be but know in truth we will be the kid at the end of the table who gets no cake but hears everyone else sayin how good it tastes. Its frustrating but thats the price we pay for living in a place that was once uncrowded and peaceful.
Hi Geoff
I’m living it not knocking it. Checked two places this morning probably right where Ardy was.
haha no worries legend! To be honest today wasn't amazing where I was but still fun to get out. Hope you get some waves tomorrow!
Legend is not me. God fordid you missed my ps. Below
ps. Good onya for what you do. And you’re right, perspective is everything.
Sunny Coast has its days just like anywhere, just far less then GC & NNSW
Sunshine hoax....
You need to be patient, and travel away if you want real waves.
Other than that, great place to live! And it does have its days...
Flat day in WA is a pumping day on SC.
SC much better than Perth though. And Perth surf gets packed.
Was more referring to SW. ;)
Lived in Perth for a few years and it definitely can be fun, but its rare and usually packed as you said mate. That's why I moved to the sunny coast! But then that stint in Perth really helped me appreciate where I am now I guess
A flat day in WA is shithouse and a pumping day on the sunny coast is joy. Also it is much easier to find a wave to yourself. Same goes for the entire east coast. Miles and miles of unridden beachies. WA is the most over-rated state for surf. Don’t believe the surf media hype and nicely lit photos. The uncrowded days are OVER..Notice how no pros ever retire here or move here… they know.
Northern NSW is a bit of a hoax as well to an extent, so many days of sideshore or onshore winds, or swells that march past out to sea or are too square.
And the crowds are stupid.
Love my sideshore b grade days!
Loose lips sink ships Steve.
Just play along...
Surely the crowds comment has some truth
Yeah I’m mostly serious.
Crowds are hectic and you need to sacrifice a lot of quality to find uncrowded waves.
And all those good days you see at the Superbank, it’s lumpy junk around here except at the zoo that is The Pass.
sure it is Andy.............haha
Hahaha, Andy....
Northern Beaches represent :p
Interesting reading through the comments here. If say you were lucky enough to live at Sunshine Beach and could take advantage of the early mornings sessions on the opens while also being able to go over to Noosa when it was on AND it wasnt’t insanely, don’t even bother, crowded. Well I reckon you’d probably say you live in one of the best surf spots in the world, all things considered.
In short, everywhere good is just about always too crowded.
I've travelled up and down the east coast a few times and here's my 2c.
Everywhere gets good, but as for consistency SC is BY FAR the worst, I couldn't live there. Then anywhere north of Byron misses out on too much swell + crowds. Then down far south you miss a lot of swell because of green cape but it's made up for by good setups and natural beauty. Between there though is really nice, for surfing and living, except Sydney of course.
Vicco sucks, especially weather wise but I think if I had to choose, I'd live down there instead of the SC with it's beaches that smell like dog piss and the mass of humanity they continue to squeeze in destroying what made it a nice place to be in the 90s. All while waiting for the 1-2 months a year you actually get decent waves.
Now excuse me, I'm going to go surfing for the..... Fuck I forget. Seventh day in a row?! Big love to all my frustrated northern breatheren.
Pumping again where I went this morning- maybe the sets were even bigger?
They sure had some girth in them.
Definitely a few longer lines starting to push in around 9 on the tweed. With girth indeed. Awesome morning shared with heaps of wildlife
Definitely better in Cooly this morning, glassy 3’ sets and way straighter/more lined up than yesterday. Sick fun actually and light crowds
Great waves today in the lower MNC, the only thing that spoilt it was the inevitable tourist blowin's (school holidays are upon us) that can't seem to see there are a few other peaks along the beach. I paddled down the beach several times to another bank to get away from them......... they followed aarrgghh. Tide changed, rip set in and finally i had a bank to myself. Im so tired now from the paddling surely was worth it though. Will sleep well tonight and hopefully get some more after work tomorrow
You guys are pinching my material.
You sure you and Rusty weren’t just following each other around?!
Nah, I mean the “Woe is me , surf is shite “ routine.
I’ve been solo surfing on my little gold mine stash. Bigger than it looks. Same with the toothy fish that swim along this beach!
So good!
Ahh v noice
Coupla semi solid ones on the tweed today. Uncrowded if you were away from the usual suspects…
2ft and sideshore at sunny coast swell magnet, (ok, maybe a weak 3ft).
Apologies to Sunny Coast crew, the headline probably oversold the surf options/quality north of Cape Moreton.
Perfect everything this morning but couldn't find anything workable. Beachies looked so-so with the bank/gutter situation, only to get worse as the tide filled in. Nice waves at the usual locations but well populated (school holidays etc). Maybe later on.