South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed April 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swell spike from midday Wed, reaching QLD border later in the day
• Robust S swell Thurs with mod/fresh S’ly winds
• Swells tending S/SE Fri slowly easing but persisting over the weekend
• Long period S swells in the mix, showing best in NENSW Fri and over the weekend
• Light winds on the weekend, tending E-NE in the a’noon
• Low levels of E swell hanging in there, up a notch from mid next week as well
• Light winds and S swells into next week

Recap

Clean and fun E swell yesterday morning was in the 2-3ft range with good quality options around before winds kicked up from the S, although they didn’t reach too much strength. As a low has spun up E of Sydney yesterday we’ve seen fresh SW winds establish across the sub-tropics, bringing the first cool change of the year. Still some clean E swell around with 2 occ. 3ft sets and we will start to see new S swell showing across NENSW through the a’noon (already building across the MNC).

Clean E swell with offshore winds in SEQLD

Raw new S swell building across NENSW

This week (Apr10-12)

There’s currently a robust Tasman low, still intensifying, moving slowly SE off the Central NSW coast down into the Tasman Sea towards New Zealand. Gales to severe gales wrapping the SW flank of the low will supply plenty of strong S’ly swell through the rest of the week. Under this sharp trough in the jet stream, as Craig pointed out, strong polar fronts are being steered NE below the Tasman, with long period S swells wrapping into the East Coast. NE infeed into the low and a retreating E’ly fetch in the South Pacific will both add small E swell sources into the mix. 

Strong SW/S winds in the short run through tomorrow although they will be much lighter north of the border especially on the Sunshine Coast. We’ll see plenty of strong S swell to 5-6ft in NENSW, bigger at S facing river bars and smaller 3ft in SEQLD where small E swell will put a floor under wave heights with some inconsistent 2 occ 3ft sets. 

Pressure gradients should have eased enough Fri for a morning offshore breeze, SW at most places before S’ly winds then tend SE in the a’noon as a high pressure ridge builds in behind the low. We should see good waves on regional Points in NENSW with 4-6ft surf from the S/SE and some bigger sets, grading smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD at S exposed breaks. Small E swell will hold 2-3ft sets. Friday should be pumping at a range of locations, although mostly overpowering the beachies. Long period S swell will also be in the mix, more noticeable in NENSW but a minor factor in the overall swell mix.

This weekend (Apr 13-14)

Still looking good for the weekend with light winds both days. Light offshore breezes both mornings should extend well into the mid/late morning before tending to light E-NE  seabreezes in the a’noon, under a light, troughy environment. 

A mix of S/SE and long period S swells on Sat should provide plenty of energy in the 4-5ft range with occ. bigger sets in NENSW, a notch smaller 3-4ft with bigger sets at S exposed breaks in SEQLD.

More of the same Sun, with the primary SE swell to 3-5ft and slowly easing, reinforced by another pulse of S swell to 3ft possibly showing later on in the a’noon. These S’ly groundswell pulses will be up and down and overlapping so there will be soft and loud periods through the weekend with the SE swell continuing to dominate.. 

Next week (Apr 15 onwards)

Still looking like light NW-NE winds through Mon/Tues next week under a weak, troughy pattern.

Sunday’s swell looks to ease into Mon, with clean 2-3ft surf on offer at S exposed breaks. 

More mid/long period S swell pulses continue into next week, likely persisting through the end of the week. These are now looking smaller- in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW and not offering much in SEQLD.

We’re also looking at some longer range E swell making landfall from a distant E’ly fetch that will supply some inconsistent 3ft sets from later Tues into Wed and Thurs.

Winds look to be light S-SE from Wed as a broad area of low pressure sits in the lower Tasman and a high drifts NE. 

A frontal intrusion later next week should bring a small/moderate S swell into next weekend.

We’ll see how this all looks on Fri. Seeya then.