South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Mar 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun blend of easing S/SE and building E swells Fri with winds favouring the Points
• Sizey E’ly swells over the weekend and most of next week with winds favouring the Points
• We may see a slight bump in size Thurs
• Otherwise, slow easing in size from the E Fri into next weekend
• Mod S swell pulse later next weekend
• Possible low off QLD coast late next week- may form a TC, low confidence, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Good S/SE swell saw 3-4ft surf across the region yesterday with light winds offering up premium surface conditions. Today has seen SE winds become established with a mix of easing S/SE and building E’ly swells favouring the Points. The big morning tides leading up to the New Moon have swallowed alot of the swell energy for the early.

Yesterday was glassy but we're back to crowded Points for the weekend and next week

This weekend (Mar 9-10)

There was a nice, lingering tail to the S swell event but we’re now entrenched in a classic late Summer pattern with strong high pressure moving into the Tasman, setting up a downstream blocking pattern and very healthy tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea, extending E into the South Pacific and south into the Northern Tasman.

That’ll see a typical wind pattern with SE-E/SE winds in the sub-tropics and a N-NE flow in temperate NSW.

Not much change for Sat’s f/cast. SE winds at mod/fresh paces and E’ly tradewind swells up into the 4-5ft range by close of play, grading smaller into more sheltered Inner Points and Bays.

Still a building trend in play for Sun with E’ly swells pushing further into the 5-6ft range with fresh SE-E/SE winds confining surf to protected Points. Hard to see any windows for less protected spots unless you can tolerate strong onshore-side shore conditions. Otherwise, it’s a Points only weekend. 

Next week (Mar 11 onwards)

We’ve still got our  late Summer pattern next week with high pressure straddling New Zealand, a monsoon trough strung across Northern Australia extending into the South Pacific and a long, broad tradewind fetch between the two broadscale atmospheric features. The blocking high now just sits a little further north than modelled on Wed, with some passing frontal systems now expected to send small S pulses up the pipe during the week with a stronger pulse over the weekend as the blocking pattern breaks down. Mostly these pulses will be too small to “show” against the prevailing strong E’ly energy from a fully developed sea state. 

Still high confidence we’ll see solid E’ly swells all of next week, under constant SE winds which may start to ease off the second half of the week. Therefore, expect size in the 5-6ft range from Mon-Wed, with some subtle ups and downs related to the big tide amplitudes but generally offering stacks of surf on the Points and a few raggedy options at semi-exposed locations for those who can handle plenty of wind and bump. 

Models are showing another kick in size Thurs by a notch related to an increase in windspeeds around a broad low pressure area near New Caledonia but models seem a bit divergent so lets flag it for now and see how it looks Mon. If you’ve been riding a shortboard all week you won’t need to change boards for it. 

We should see E’ly swell fluctuate but generally ease a notch through the Fri of next week as the blocking pattern breaks down. An expected low pressure centre near New Caledonia now looks to drift away to the SE (instead of retrograding back into the Coral Sea)- that should see a slow easing in size from that source into and over next weekend.

Counteracting that will be a stronger S swell from a frontal intrusion into the Tasman later next week. There’s still some substantial model divergence so we’ll keep a lid on any froth but a ballpark size range of 3-4ft at S facing beaches during Sun. We’ll finesse that on Mon.

Winds look tricky as an inland trough and potential low look to form off the Far South Coast, as well as a possible tropical low off the QLD coast. It’s possible we may see something juicy spin up next weekend so tune in for details on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!