South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Feb 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Extended run of trade swell continues, softer mid week, rebuilding again Thurs, peaking Fri at solid levels
• Lighter winds possible Thurs/Fri AM (may offer up beachbreak opportunities) 
• Back to SE winds Fri, lighter on the weekend
• Plenty of fun E swell over the weekend- down a notch on Fri
• More E swell next week
• Small S swell pulses Tues/Wed next week

Recap

E’ly tradewind swell has continued to chug away in the 3-4ft range, slightly smaller yesterday morning but all in all remaining pretty relentless. Light E’ly winds tended E/NE yesterday a’noon but very warm inshore sea temps restricted wind speeds. This morning saw a nice period of light/variable land breezes which allowed cleaner conditions to spread over the beachbreaks which offered up a few diamonds in the rough. Otherwise, it was another day with fun surf on the Points before the NE winds got up.

Still a little raw, but it cleaned up enough to have a swing at the beachies

This week (Feb 14-16)

Our current pattern of slow moving high pressure  near New Zealand is still well entrenched with a modest cold front sweeping into the Tasman and bringing a S’ly change to temperate NSW. Multiple cells of reinforcing high pressure then one by one move into the Tasman, maintaining a weak ridge up the NSW Coast and a deep E’ly flow through the South Pacific and Eastern Coral Sea, with resulting E’ly swells favouring the sub-tropics for size, with a rebuild in size expected later this week.

Plenty of swell to work with as tradewinds rebuild into the Coral Sea and we see E’ly swells start to build again through tomorrow, up into the 4ft range and up a notch further into Fri, with sets likely to push a notch up into the 4-5ft range.

It all comes down to local winds and they look pretty good again tomorrow as a trough pushes north along the MNC. We should see light/variable land breezes in the morning with a widespread distribution across the region tending light E’ly then E/SE’ly in the a’noon with plenty of fun surf across the Points as they do. The morning should offer up some good/great surf on the beachies if you have a bank in hand that can handle the swell.

Fri looks more of a Points day as the E-E/SE flow kicks up and size in the 3-5ft range is likely to overpower most beachbreaks. Still, we should see a little window early for the beachies, especially south of the border, where pressure gradients are lighter. 

This weekend (Feb 17-18)

That pattern of light winds in NENSW, tending to slightly stronger SE winds in SEQLD looks to continue over the weekend although all areas may see morning SW winds inshore early on Sat morning (and Sun morning!).

If winds play ball we could see some really fun beachies as size settles a notch from Fri, although still offering 3-4ft sets. 

Similar for Sun, with just a tad more size shaved off, although still offering 3 occ. 4ft sets.

It looks like a weekend of really fun waves. 

Next week (Feb19 onwards)

A front tied to a compact low passing into the Tasman Sun/Mon brings some S swell Mon/Tues with a first long period pulse later Mon to 2-3ft and the bulk of the mid period swell filling in Tues offering up 3ft sets at S facing beaches. We should see some small S swell in the mix Wed. 

Likely though, like other recent S swells the E’ly tradewind swell will remain the dominant signal and S swell will be a very minor plater.

E’ly swells continue next week with ups and downs related to small tropical low pressure  cells squeezing onto the tradewind belt. We’ll see how it looks on Fri but pencilling in another week of 3ft surf with some bigger 3-4ft pulses likely is a pretty safe bet. Winds look light for most of the week, although tending N’ly through the second half of the week.

We may see a  slow fade out into the end of next week into the weekend  as the fetch becomes more scattered. Still some model divergence though so we’ll finesse on Fri.

More small S groundswell pulses also look likely as front and deep running lows below 55S track through the far southern swell window later next week.

We’ll see how these are shaping up on Fri.