South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Feb 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, flukey S swell pulse possible across NENSW S facing beaches Tues
• Pulsey E’ly tradewind swell developing from Tues next week with SE-E/SE winds becoming established from Wed
• Restrengthening in S-SE winds this weekend with plenty of E to E/SE swell
• Fluky S/SE swell in the mix Fri/Sat across NENSW
• S groundswell in the mix Sun/Mon- not showing much north of the border
• Continuing E’ly tradewind swell showing through next week- possibly with more size

Recap

Another flukey S swell event with a very strong, long period S swell barely showing north of Coffs. Sat showed an initial pulse of S swell with S swell magnets in NESW offering up some very good 3-4ft surf under light offshore winds. Not much of that showed north of Byron. That pulse died back in the a’noon. Sun saw long lines and plenty of swell period on the buoys but only S swell magnets south of Coffs were showing any size with 4-6ft surf at direct S facing beaches. Elsewhere it was 3-4ft at best at S exposed breaks in NENSW and barely 2ft in SEQLD where residual E swell held 2ft of surf. NE winds kicked up Sun and are with us again today with mostly poor quality 2-3ft surf, apart from a few backbeaches showing better wave quality.

S groundswell showing strongly at Coffs, not much of a showing further north

This week (Feb 5-9)

We’ve got a complex pattern playing out at the moment with an inland trough/low approaching the coast, expected to bring a mid week S-S/SE change in conjunction with a new high moving in from the Bight. A semi-stationary area of low pressure in the Coral Sea is anchoring a broad trade-wind flow with an extended tradeswell event ahead. To the south, a severe gale to storm force fetch off the ice shelf from a retrograding low under the South Island sends a rare S/SE groundswell up the Pipe, with another strong front/low late this week into the weekend expected to generate another pulse of S’ly groundswell over the weekend.

In the short run we’re looking at one more day of N’ly tending NE winds tomorrow, with a stronger flow south of Ballina and light/mod winds north of the border. Trade-wind swells will perk up later today and into tomorrow, into a typical 2-3ft signal. There’ll be some fun waves at backbeaches through tomorrow under a typical peaky E-E/NE tradewind signal.

We’ll see a robust S-SE change Wed, likely on the MNC before first light, across the Tweed-Byron region early morning and reaching the border late morning. That will be well timed for the Points where E’ly tradewind swell continues at a pulsey 3ft level, offering plenty of fun peelers. Early mornign on the Sunshine Coast may see some clean beachies before the change.

We’ll still have a S/SE flow on Thurs as the angled trough sits in the Tasman, we may even see it intensify into a small low, bringing some S/SE swell into the mix, more likely in NENSW. E’ly tradewind swells will still be the dominant signal with pulsey 3ft surf continuing.

Same again to end the working week. Mod SE winds which may tend SW inshore early across the Tweed-Byron region and more likely Southern Gold Coast with pulsey tradewind swell boosted a little by an increase in the trade-flow, likely into the 3ft+ range with a chance of 4ft sets at the Outer Gold Coast Points.  We’ll see how the fetch looks on Wed. The curveball on Thurs is some rare S/SE groundswell from the current ice shelf fetch which should offer some inconsistent 2-3ft sets into the mix, more noticeable in NENSW.

This weekend (Feb 10-11)

Looks like the S’ly to S/SE’ly flow kicks again Sat as a new high cell approaches from the Bight and the trough of low pressure which has been sitting in the Tasman focusses the new high pressure ridge. To the south a strong front is expected to be traversing the lower Tasman. Chalk up another day of E’ly swell in the 3ft range, with some small S/SE groundswell in the mix and potential for a build  short range SE swell from the new high pressure ridge. At a minimum, we’ll see another day of fun surf on the Points Sat with a chance of morning SW breezes opening up a few beachies for the morning session. 

The reinforcing high strengthens the trade flow further south into Sun so we should see an increase in more E-E/SE swell through the day, up into the 4ft range. That will be the dominant swell signal, under continuing S-SE winds. There’ll be some long period S swell from the frontal passage through the Tasman , showing some 3ft sets in NENSW but not adding much to the swell regime north of the border.

Next week (Feb12 onwards)

A bit of model divergence for next week but the basic gist of the pattern is high pressure straddling the North Island, with a healthy trade-flow in the Southern Coral , Northern Tasman Seas and extending into the South Pacific. 

We should see easing S swell to start next week, mixed in with continuing  E’ly swell from this trade-wind flow.

We may see an increase in that E’ly swell early next week, depending on the strength of the flow and the fate of a depression located near New Caledonia.

ECMWF suggests the low will drift back into the Coral Sea bringing an increased E swell signal for most of the East Coast while GFS has the low dissipating or drifting towards Vanuatu with a small E’ly tradewind signal.

Further ahead we should see another moderate/strong frontal system moves into the Southern swell window mid next week bringing another pulse of S’ly groundswell late next week.

Let’s see how it looks on Wed.