South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 12th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of E-E/SE swell Sat with SE winds
• Swell easing right back into Sun with SE winds (lighter inshore early)
• SE surge Mon brings an increase in short range SE swell, building further into Tues under S-SE winds
• Tricky outlook from mid next week as active Monsoon Trough buds off small lows - should be workable E swell all week at a minimum
• More activity on the radar next week, as tropics remains active, still looking for something concrete, check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Sneaky S swell arrived with perfect timing across S exposed breaks in NENSW yesterday morning with size mostly in the 3ft range, and outliers reported at Ballina in the 4ft+ range. Most of SEQLD was small and glassy in the 2ft range from residual E swell. Surf started to increase yesterday as SE winds really picked up and this morning we have a much more energetic ocean. The Gold Coast is really hoovering up the maximum size with Outer Points and D-Bah showing solid 4-6ft surf, grading smaller into inside Points. Elsewhere in NENSW, South of Byron was in the 3-4ft range and the Sunshine Coast was similar. Mod/fresh SE winds are confining clean conditions to the Points. 

Very solid at D-bah

Plenty getting into Coolangatta Bay as well

This weekend (Jan 13-14)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. The current pattern of SE winds extends into tomorrow, although winds should be a notch lighter it’ll still mostly be a Points kind of day. A slight reduction in the top end of the swell is expected as the fetch breaks down o/night. Plenty of 3-4ft surf, bigger 4-5ft on the Gold Coast and grading smaller into more sheltered inner Points.

With the fetch breaking down we’ll see a pretty rapid drop in size into Sun. Background E swell will hold size in the 2-3ft range but expect plenty of inconsistency. Mod SE winds again, but there’s an increased chance we’ll see a window of SW winds inshore early across the Southern Gold Coast and Tweed-Byron stretch. Enough to open up a few more spots. 

Next week (Jan 15 onwards)

A monsoon trough sits over Northern Australia terminating in the Coral Sea, with a strong high moving into the Tasman to start next week. The resulting SE surge up through the Tasman into the Coral Sea generates plenty of swell as the fetch spreads out across the Tasman. 

Under current modelling we’re looking at a day of mod/fresh S/SE-SE winds to start the new week with a mix of E and new short range SE swell to 2-3ft building to a chunky 3-5ft during the day in NENSW, smaller by a notch in SEQLD. A broad but moderate strength front pushing into the Tasman below the high will send some S swell northwards, but mostly lost in the dominant short range swell signal. Smaller surf at more sheltered Points.

The surge moves north quickly through later Mon into Tues with a high in the central Tasman Tues directing a continuing  SE’ly flow, although wind strengths along the coast should start to ease off  from Mon. A chunky blend of S and dominant E/SE swell to 4ft will supply plenty of surf for the region, with best quality on the Points.

Very low confidence in the f/cast from mid next week as models struggle to resolve the southwards extension of the monsoon trough which buds off through the southern Coral Sea and into the Tasman. We may see troughs form small lows next week in the Northern Tasman, Coral Sea and near the North Island, each with E’ly fetches generating small swell pulses. Any of those systems could flare up next week, including form a Tropical cyclone off the QLD coast.

Models are still interested in a trough deepening to a low either E of Tasmania or off the Gippsland coast, possibly moving up off the NSW South Coast - enhanced by extra warm water pooled up in that region. Infeed into that system may generate NE wind-swell later next week, the return S’ly to SE flow is a chance to generate S-SE swell into next weekend, although more likely for Southern NSW.

We can expect small pulses of swell from the E from mid next week at a minimum- with potential for something juicier if one of the lows really winds up. 

With the current ultra troughy, unstable pattern and the Tasman Sea a hot, soupy mess we can also expect revisions, possibly major on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!