South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increase in E-E/SE swell from Thurs PM into the weekend as fetch retrogrades towards east coast with winds favouring the Points
• SE surge Mon brings an increase in short range SE swell, building further into Tues under S-SE winds
• Plenty of workable E/SE-E swell at a minimum from mid next week
• More activity on the radar next week, as tropics becomes active, still looking for something concrete, check back Fri fir revisions

Recap

Small E swell hovered in the 2ft range yesterday with the very occ. 3ft set. Conditions were clean early and winds varied thrpogh the day under stormy conditions, generally tending mod NE through the a’noon. Similar conditions today, albeit a half notch smaller with some clean 2ft surf around, tidally affected by the large new moon tidal amplitude. Light winds early tending to NE breezes through the day. 

Glassy shories on the big morning high tide

This week (Jan 10-12)

The compact low near Tasmania is now skipping away to the SE with a large high SE of the South Island (1034 hPa) interacting with a broad low pressure trough in the South Pacific which will supply E’ly quadrant swell in the near term as the low pressure trough retrogrades back towards the east coast. The high pressure belt remains positioned well to the south with continuing troughiness and SE wind episodes ahead. We’re still in a holding pattern in the tropics with nothing major yet to form in our swell window despite an active phase of the MJO. 

In the short run we’ll see small E swell continue but with winds shifting E to SE through the day as the trough retrogrades back towards us and high pressure slips into the Tasman. Small surf to start, in the 2ft range or less but by the a’noon we’ll see a modest little kick in new E-E/SE swell, pushing sets back up into the 2-3ft range. 

That SE’ly flow kicks a bit harder into Fri, likely fresh to strong and a Points only deal apart from some wind affected semi-protected beachbreaks. Current ASCAT passes don’t look too impressive and windspeeds look to stay pretty low so it’s unlikely size will breach the 3-4ft range on Fri - possibly a few bigger sets on the outside of the Coolangatta Bay.

This weekend (Jan 13-14)

We’re looking at similar swell conditions for Sat- 3-4ft from the E/SE with a few bigger sets on the outer edge of exposed Points.  Winds through the morning tending to light/mod S’lies before clocking around SE at moderate strength during the day. 

The trough of low pressure washes out in the Coral Sea Sat with leftover E/SE swell to 3ft on Sun and light/mod Sly winds which get a boost during the a’noon as a new high pressure ridge builds up the coast, possibly bringing an increase in short range SE swell in the a’noon (Mon looks more likely).

Next week (Jan 15 onwards)

As mentioned on Mon, the strong high under the continent and angled trough sets up a decent SE surge and wind field in the Tasman. The trough retreats NE fairly quickly but the resultant wind field should leave us with at least 3-4ft of SE  swell (with some S swell mixed in) through Mon with mod/fresh SE winds. 

With the high moving into the Central Tasman Tues we’ll see the fetch lengthen out across the Northern Tasman and a peak in short range SE swell likely up into the 3-5ft range with smaller surf into more sheltered Points under mod S’ly tending SE’ly winds.

This peak will ease into Wed under current modelling.

Further ahead and looks like a few near misses, as the retreating trough forms a low near the North Island which looks to slip in behind the swell shadow of same island. 

Tropical activity may still see a low form in the Coral Sea next week but models are divergent.

GFS is still favouring a deep low forming E of Tasmania in a trough line Thurs, which potentially offers mod to sizey S swell to end next week.

Low confidence on this outlook. 

We’ll keep tabs on all these prospects and hope something takes hold during this active tropical phase. At a minimum winds off the top of the high look to maintain at least 2-3ft of E quadrant swell through the end of next week.

Check back Fri for the latest.