South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 5th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building short range S-S/SE swells Fri PM
• Moderate sized S/SE swells Sat, tending more SE-E/SE Sun - small waves on the Points and raggedy beachies
• SE-E swells continue into next week with SE winds, tending E-NE from Tues
• That summer pattern looks persistent as another high ridges in
• Possibly a bigger SE swell late next weekend, but low confidence- check back Mon for updates

Recap

Easing but fun sized 2-3ft E/SE swell yesterday with a window of clean to semi-clean conditions across the beachies (more notable south of the border) before S-SE winds kicked in and clean surf was confined to the Points. More of the same today but a notch smaller to start with a few 2ft peelers on the Points and peaky beachies before the SE wind kicked in. That SE wind is part of a new SE surge which will see an increase in new SE swell later today and o/night.

Clean, peaky beachies this morning before the SE wind got up

This weekend (Jan 6-7)

Not a great deal of change to the weekend f/cast other than the current SE surge lifting wave heights a notch into Sat as winds freshen through the Northern Tasman swell window. 

Nothing fancy about tomorrow, moderate to fresh SE winds from start to finish (slim chance of a brief SW window across the Southern Gold Coast) with short range SE-E/SE swells to 3-4ft offering plenty of fun peelers on the Points and a few raggedy beachies for the unfussy prepared to sacrifice wave quality for uncrowded surf.

That initial SE surge eases into Sun with lighter SE tending E’ly winds and a smaller payload of E/SE swell to 2-3ft, likely becoming weaker and less consistent in the a’noon. 

Next week (Jan 8 onwards)

High pressure moving across the Tasman with a reinforcing high tracking towards New Zealand through the week is the story for next week. We’ll see winds shift E then E/NE’ly to NE through Mon into Tues. 

Surf-wise the fetch off the top of the high and a broad troughy area, holds another round of E’ly quadrant swell in the 2-3ft range, very similar to the last round. Quality will be wind affected but we should see light enough winds in the morning for glassy lightly wind affected surf.

Further ahead and at a minimum those winds in the Northern Tasman - basically a southwards positioned tradewind fetch- should hold small, workable swells from the E for the entirety of next week. We may see some small troughy features or an E’ly dip enhance wind speeds in that fetch offering some bigger embedded pulses but we’ll see how that looks on Mon. 

E’ly to NE’ly winds look to tend more SE again by Thurs next week as the reinforcing high slips across the Tasman and the ridge repositions, possibly enhanced by the broad trough moving southwards.

There is suggestions at the end of model runs that we may see a trough line develop an angled SE fetch later next weekend (see below) which would generate some sizey swells from that direction. Very low confidence this far out, but we’ll flag it as a possibility and see how it looks on Mon. The high pressure belt continues to track at a very southwards latitude, suppressing the Southern Ocean storm track so any S swells making it into the Tasman will continue to be very small and flukey.

Let's see how it looks Mon, in the meantime keep the small wave sleds handy and have a great weekend!