South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E’ly swells Thurs with light morning winds tending S/SE
• Building short range S-S/SE swells Fri PM
• Fun sized S/SE swells Sat, tending more SE-E/SE Sun - small waves on the Points and raggedy beachies
• SE-E swells continue into next week with S-SE winds
• That summer pattern looks persistent

Recap

E’ly swells generated by proximate winds feeding into a coastal trough have supplied surf in the 3ft+ range yesterday ( a few 4footers on the Gold Coast where size was biggest) with winds from the SE yesterday, favouring Points. Today has seen a more SW-S flow early with cleaner morning conditions and just a small drop in size. A few semi-clean beachies were on offer with those morning winds with the best quality waves still on the Points. Water quality was very affected by floodwaters from the Tweed River, less so on the Sunshine Coast with most of NENSW seeing warm, Bluewater.

Goldy Points had the best wave quality and crowds to match

This week (Jan 3-5)

Not a great deal of change since Mon with a slow moving, weakening high in the Tasman, and a coastal trough off the QLD Coast (responsible for hundreds of mm of rainfall) now moving away and dissipating. A trough moving north from a position east of Tasmania brings a renewal of the S’ly pattern into Fri before the summer pattern slowly resets over the weekend. Any large or moderate swell generating features have disappeared from the charts, alas.

In the short run we’ll see early light S’lies tomorrow (SW inshore early) before SE winds kick up to  light/mod strength. Peak size will have come down from yesterday and this morning as the trough dissipates but workable 2 occ. 3ft sets are still on the menu and worth getting wet for. 

Not much practical difference into Fri, small E-SE swell will slip down another notch but hold some 2 footers with the occ. bigger one. Reinforcing high pressure will see the S/SE flow strengthen through the a’noon and along with that we may see a small rebuild in local S/SE swell across the North Coast, just tipping over the border on close of play. Nothing significant but adding few small peelers to the Points.

This weekend (Jan 6-7)

We’ve got more clarity for the weekend f/cast and it looks like a reasonable outlook for the region, if you can work around S to SE winds of moderate strength. S/SE-SE winds become established in the Northern Tasman offering a similar swell as the current one. 

Likely pushing wave heights up into the 3ft range Sat and tending more E/SE Sun as a trough anchors the fetch off the QLD Coast.

That does offer potential upside to size if the trough deepens and increases windspeeds o/night Sat into Sun. We’ll pencil in 2-3ft for now, and see how it looks Fri-certainly another round of 3ft or 3-4ft surf is well within the bounds of possibility.  Winds will favour the Points again but they should be light enough to allow some scrappier semi-exposed beachies to be utilised if you aren’t too fussy and want a less crowded option. 

Next week (Jan 8 onwards)

Back to typical summer pattern next week with a high in the Tasman and a SE  flow along the subtropical NSW and QLD coasts. The fetch in the Northern Tasman off the top of the high looks easily capable of holding 2-3ft surf into early next week, so pencil that in for Mon/Tues at least.

The fetch contracts Eastwards through next week so a slow easing in E swell is likely from Wed-Fri although we should reach a floor of 2ft of lazy E swell for the second half of next week.

Unfortunately the low which looked to form East of Tasmania, skips away to the SE quickly with strongest winds aimed away from the NSW Coast. A following front looks to supply some small S swell into the mix, not exceeding 2ft and barely showing north of the border.

Under GFS scenario high pressure moves into the Tasman with an onshore E’ly flow and workable levels of E quadrant short period swell later next week- more of the same really.

Nothing amazing but an improvement on what we have had with small peelers on the Points and some beach break options for those who can deal with a bit of side shore wind.

Check back Fri for a last look at the weekend.

Seeya then.