Still plenty of size this weekend but TC Jasper now looks to cross QLD coast

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 6th Dec)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, weak surf continues this week
  • Small bump in E/NE swell Fri PM for SEQLD
  • Building E-E/NE cyclone associated swells over the weekend- solid Sat PM and Sun with onshore E’ly winds
  • Solid E’ly swells into Mon, although easing as TC Jasper approaches NQ coast
  • Small E’ly swell Tues/Wed with continuing onshore winds
  • Back to small, weak surf from mid next week

Recap

Not much surf since Mon with small 1-1.5ft waves on offer, clean in the mornings. Today has seen similar size with winds now kicking up from the N/NE south of the border, remaining light/variable in SEQLD.

Recap

Small mixed bag yesterday of leftover S/SE swells and some small NE swell in the a’noon under NE winds. Conditions were clean early with mostly 2ft surf, a few bigger 2-3ft waves on the Hunter. A S’ly change today has made most beaches wind affected with a few small 1-2ft waves on offer for the keen at protected spots. 

This week (Dec 6-8)

We’ve still got weak high pressure in the Tasman with a trough quickly dissipating and a N’ly flow returning for the rest of the week. TC Jasper has formed in water surrounding the Solomon Islands and is intensifying under favourable conditions. Most models now are suggesting a SW-W curvature as it enters the Coral Sea, with a smaller surf potential compared to Mondays notes as it crosses the coast instead of tracking through the Coral Sea. The troughy pattern we’ve seen since early November continues, with surf potential continuing to favour Southern NSW. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see the current wind regime continue with light/variable flow tomorrow (land breezes early) tending to light E/NE-NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Keep the grovellers handy- just a small signal of minor short range S swell and background E swell to 1-1.5ft at best. 

N’lies then freshen through Fri in NENSW with lighter winds in SEQLD.  Tiny surf expected through the morning- 1-1.5ft at best on the magnets. We may see a small, late increase in new E/NE swell on the Sunshine Coast to 2-3ft, but Sat is a better bet.

This weekend (Dec 9-10)

By Sat morning Jasper is expected to be a severe TC (Cat 3 or above) drifting towards the N.QLD coastline. The majority of the swell generating winds are the E’ly windfield surrounding Jasper and extending from south of New Caledonia back across the entire Coral Sea. This fetch will see surf build from the E/NE Sat, likely from 2-3ft up to 5-6ft during the day- a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast. Winds won’t be great with a straight onshore E-E/NE flow, tending more NE into NSW but they should be light enough to offer workable waves on the Points and some raggedy beachies for those with good paddling arms. We may still see stronger and longer period E/NE swell depending on the track of Jasper, potentially offering up 8ft surf for those rare spots which are open to the swell and protected from the winds.

Surf holds into Sun, at similar sizes. Strong 6ft surf is expected with an E’ly flow, tending more NE in NSW. We may see lighter E’ly winds through Sun in SEQLD as the TC moves westwards. More than likely you’ll have to deal with some level of onshore winds.

Next week (Dec 11 onwards)

By Mon, TC Jasper, under current modelling, looks to approach the NQ coast with the E’ly windfield also contracting westwards. Still plenty of size for the start of the week, likely in the 4-6ft range but with an easing trend in play and continuing E’ly quadrant winds, more NE south of Tweed-Byron.

By Tues a crossing is expected and we’ll see that easing trend become more pronounced, with surf dropping back to 3-4ft, down to 3ft at close of play.

Further easing through Wed with some fun beachies on offer and 2-3ft surf.

No change to the wind pattern. Typically, cyclones crossing the NQ coast leave a residual E/NE-NE flow and that appears the most likely outcome here.

Winds looks to increase from the NE later next week.

 After this swell associated with TC Jasper it looks like we’re back to small weak swells, although we’ll be watching later next week for another trough forming off the South Coast which may have some surf potential. Check back Fri to see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya Fri. 

Comments

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Wednesday, 6 Dec 2023 at 2:50pm

mm, up here for a month working. last day I had in Vic was pumping 6ft + but there's been nothing there or here since. might get lucky this weekend :)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 6 Dec 2023 at 3:08pm

If you're not too fussy there'll be plenty of waves.

I don't mind onshore point surf.

nick_french's picture
nick_french's picture
nick_french Wednesday, 6 Dec 2023 at 3:16pm

Are NE swells of that size expected in the 6ft range rare for Queensland points and with that period of swell. Whilst onshore, I am assuming Noosa and Superbank would receive most of the size due to swell direction ?.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 6 Dec 2023 at 3:26pm

Uncommon, but they happen ..... fair amount of the swell energy will be E/NE souped up trade wind swell.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 6 Dec 2023 at 4:10pm

I was going to say I’m not seeing 6ft swell from the NE. Agree with Steve the bulk of the swell energy will be more Ely and lower swell period.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 10:12am

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 10:20am

Hello

My question for the day. Both the major models seem to have similar tracking now.

How confident are you experts that this will play out like that ? Or do you feel changes over the next few days

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 10:28am

Divergence is still there.

GFS has it faster tracking, making a straight line west-southwest towards the QLD coast (crossing Tuesday evening).

EC has it slower and curving back more west, staying further north (crossing early Friday morning).

I'd go with EC, slower and likely crossing later week.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 12:36pm
freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 12:53pm

Looks like a Larry track.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 11:05am

Slowww, but the odd long lined 3fter before the tide killed it.

geoffrobertford's picture
geoffrobertford's picture
geoffrobertford Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 12:04pm

Definitely some occasional nice waves on the Sunny Coast this morning under lovely beach break conditions - water is lovely and warm!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 12:16pm

E'ly swell gents?

There was a slight bump in size here- but definitely SE- I assume from a slight intensification of a trough in Central Tasman.
Only the odd 2ft+ set but it had a line to it.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 1:39pm

The random bigger ones felt like a longer period E swell, hit pretty straight, not much energy in them, single wave sets. Mostly 1-2ftish short stuff on high tide, glassy though, slightly bigger then yesterday.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 2:18pm

In Ballina Felt more E than SE with lefts and north to south current.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 3:52pm

Deffo SE swell from angle of attack on local points and buoy data.
Would be pretty square on at Ballina.

lomah's picture
lomah's picture
lomah Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 1:34pm

Anybody know what model the BOM use? They have a simulation where it barely moves from current position for a week. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

PL's picture
PL's picture
PL Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 2:25pm

Have no idea but that's fairly peculiar.

swalker's picture
swalker's picture
swalker Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 2:29pm

Pretty sure it's Access-G3, and yep it's showing Jasper as pretty stationary isn't it? Radically different from the other models. Looks even better on windy.com

spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey's picture
spidermonkey Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 4:19pm

Bomb uses access g. Generally only good for a laugh. But what you want to look at is their cyclone forecast track map on the warnings pages.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 7 Dec 2023 at 1:37pm

Yep that's about it Steve, faint weak lines but lines nonetheless.
A beautiful day to be in the water in any case.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 7:07am
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 7:27am

Haha!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 8 Dec 2023 at 10:47am

The detail..