Cyclone in the Coral Sea now likely with large swells expected under a southwards track
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 4th Dec)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small S-S/SE swell Mon/Tues with S-SE winds
- Small, weak surf continues this week
- Building E-E/NE tradewind swells over the weekend
- TC now expected to track southwards through Coral Sea with large cyclone swells becoming likely next week- still early days so check back Wed for updates
Recap
Not much surf over the weekend with SEQLD generally well under 2ft with a N’ly flow. NENSW fared a little better with a few 2ft sets Sat and some SE swell filtering up Sun. A W/NW-NW flow was persistent, especially Sat which allowed for some clean beachbreaks. S’ly winds today have confined surf to a few tiny peelers on Points and not much else. All eyes on the Solomon Islands region as we watch a numbered tropical depression, 92P, with cyclogenesis now becoming increasingly likely.
This week (Dec 4-8)
Weak high pressure in the Tasman and a trough is creating a “doldrums” type pattern of slack pressure gradients and small swells this week, with a few wind changes to negotiate. No major swells expected this week. The headline feature is a potential major tropical cyclone drifting into the Coral Sea with a poleward (southwards) track late this week, over the weekend and into next week. It’s still early days but under certain modelled outcomes we could see a coast hugging system bringing large swells down the entire East Coast.
In the short run and we’ll skip quickly through most of this week with a pattern of small, weak swells.
Light winds tomorrow tending SE in the a’noon and freshening with minor levels of SE swell from a weak fetch around the Central Tasman trough- nothing more than 1-2ft.
Similar size or less on Wed with an advancing trough likely stalling on the MNC bringing a S’ly to that region, light N’lies elsewhere.
The trough washes out off the Lower MNC Coast with a variable flow Thurs- likely W-NW early before tending to weak NE’ly seabreezes. No real surf to speak of with more small, weak swells to 1-2ft.
N’lies kick up on Fri with more small weak surf to 1-2ft.
This weekend (Dec 9-10)
N’ly winds look to continue and freshen this weekend, especially south of Byron-Ballina in response to an approaching trough of low pressure off the NSW Central Coast. Lighter breezes are expected in SEQLD.
All eyes will be on the Coral Sea with an expected TC starting it’s southwards journey. Initially we’ll see a developing E’ly wind field in the Coral Sea late this week which should see a small increase in E-E/NE trade swell through Sat, up into the 2-3ft range.
By Sunday that increase should become more substantial. We’ll see how model runs shape up through the week but size up into the 3-4ft range Sun, bigger 4-5ft in SEQLD, is on the cards. Expect smaller surf south of Yamba by a notch.
Next week (Dec 11 onwards)
Lots of uncertainty next week, primarily concerned with the track and strength of any TC which is steered into the Coral Sea.
We should see NE winds to start the week as the trough dissipates off the Sydney coast and any TC tracks south.
Expect an onshore flow NE-E/NE , continuing into Tues. Surf-wise we should see at least a steady increase in size through Mon/Tues- likely into the 6ft range.
Predictability and confidence in outcomes then takes a nosedive depending on the outcomes of the potential TC (Nat). If it remains slower moving in the Coral Sea the size increase will be delayed. Onshore winds will be an issue under this scenario.
One modelled outcome is a coast-hugging system which would see large to XL swells develop from the NE-E/NE, possibly as early as Wed. Depending on the speed of movement we’d expect a very rapid rise in size (8-12ft as a guide) and potential drop-off as the system passed by.
We’ll flag these potential outcomes for now, and keep a weather eye on all the available track and intensity data as it comes to hand, with a full report back on Wed, as well as below the line updates, most likely in the QLD notes.
Seeya Wed.
Comments
Banks have improved so much lately. Coast hugger can bugger off.
Bank at my local beachie's been shit for so long, I kinda want this chiropractic adjustment.
Like those insta memes where the chiro kills the dog?
Brace yourselves...for the usual flood of Mexicans across the border.
Yep
Here I come amigo
The boms got it taking out Townsville at the moment on the 13th.
Looking at the ten day synoptic.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5S 160.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 158.3E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, GUADALCANAL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040331Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92P IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THEN MAKE A SHARP SOUTHWARD TURN AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
A High chance of a tropical cyclone developing near the Solomon Islands on Tuesday.
Tropical low, 02U, is tracking west over the Solomon Islands in the Australian area of responsibility.
02U has a High chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the Solomon Sea on Tuesday .
By Wednesday, 02U should be intensifying and tracking southwards towards the northeastern Coral Sea. There is a high chance 02U will intensify into a severe tropical cyclone from Thursday.
This weekend, 02U is likely to be moving through central parts of the Coral Sea as a severe tropical cyclone.
Recent guidance indicates that 02U could move close to the Queensland coast next week.
Australian AOR so TC Jasper
Too close to the coast hey? Howling NE doesn't sound like much to froth about
absolutely nothing to get excited about right now.
Both models have done a rather large about face in this evenings runs and I’m fact they’re now both following the ensemble probability chart that Craig posted earlier quite well.
Was odd how glassy it was even at 3pm NNSW yesterday...i'd have thought there'd be a shallow seabreeze puffing.
Was so strange how that seabreeze didn't come up- water was cold, land was hot.
Yeah I couldn’t fathom it either. Even said to my mates the ocean looked like a late autumn early winters day. Beautiful conditions just weird for stinking hot summer.
The possible track for this cyclone could be similar to Debbie.
I saw chinderah go under so I worry bout ex tropical cyclones too.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/debbie17.shtml
I've been thinking about Debbie too.
Lets hope it doesn't take the same track.
Massive curveball in the latest data.
Amazing what can happen in one model run.
Certainly wouldn't rule out anything, anywhere yet though.
Coastal crossing chances are increasing..
Surf wise, not good thanks to accompanying onshore winds the whole episode.
Yeah, massive downgrade for surf potential on latest runs.
More so shitty onshore winds now. Still swell. Just nowhere worthy of surfing.
Bugger, thought I'd fly over to surf DIP :)
How reliable is this model??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=swpa...
It's reliable but that run was initialized days ago.
New runs show it crossing in North QLD.
JWTC beeline straight for the Qld coast around Mackay
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0324.gif
Was checking out Windy and it looks like a huge ridge coming up from the south, so a big southerly blowing at about the time the cyclone swell hits Noosa. NFI what that means but it looks like it might be pretty wild. Long way off though.
oh hang on - that was yesterday...today its changed quite a lot and has the cyclone smashing into Cairns....mmmm
This crap cyclone going to destroy North Queensland and produce no swell. Grrrrrrr
Sheesh. Buckle up for some rain SEQ and Northern Rivers
Could be more CQ focussed SL67- which would be great- especially if it fell in the Fitzroy Basin.
Maybe there’s a fair chance of both scenarios.
Looks huge.
Tonight it seems EC looking Oswald and GFS looking Debbie?
As you know there was plenty of wet stuff down here after their initial damage up north.
Yep
There’s still potential for a Debbie scenario
Plus looks like a sting in the tail coming back around on the back side.
Not a prediction by me , just looking at the options.
Good luck all.
I do wonder how prepared our Disaster recovery services are and if they are gearing up "just in case". I suspect they are.
Plan for the worst, expect the best.
Maggie Island should have a few by the end of the week