Blocking high in Tasman next week see small E'ly swells and onshore winds

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 3rd Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Not much over the weekend, a few small beachies best Sat morning, tending to weak E-NE windswells Sun
  • NE winds over the weekend, tending E’ly on Sun as new high pressure moves into Tasman
  • Small to start next week, junky, but workable E’ly swell for the most part as slow moving high occupies Tasman
  • Better quality distant E’ly tradewind swell Wed/Thurs, very slow and inconsistent
  • Continuing E’ly trade-wind swells into next weekend under blocking high pattern

Recap

Residual E/SE swells provided some 3-4ft sets yesterday, easing through the day with some small S/SE swells adding a small amount of energy in NENSW. Conditions were glassy/lumpy under a lingering light onshore flow.  Size has eased right back today with just some small 2 occ 3ft S swell at S facing beasches in NENSW and a smaller mixed bag to 2ft in SEQLD. Light winds provided clean conditions before a light Nor-easter kicked up.

S-S/SE swells favoured NENSW with clean morning conditions

This weekend (Nov 4-5)

We’ve got some more clarity now on how the unstable, troughy pattern will resolve over the weekend. Generally speaking, winds look light now on Sat, tending to light/mod NE’lies through the day with morning land breezes likely.  Surf-wise, there’ll just be a small signal of leftover S/SE swell in the water throwing up a few 2+ footers in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft across open beaches in SEQLD. 

Onshore E’ly winds increase on Sun a’noon as the large high moving through the Bight starts to enter the Tasman and builds a ridge up the coast, feeding into the inland troughs. We should see a light land breeze in the morning (brief and NW) before winds tend NE then clock around to the E. Nothing much to see here surf-wise, just a weak 1-1.5ft signal of small E’ly swells. 

Next week (Nov 6 onwards)

We’ll see that onshore flow through most or all of the working week under present modelling as the slow moving high occupies the Tasman- although it does weaken through the early part of next week.

Along with the small troughy area hovering about the North Coast we should see light winds Mon and  Tues. Likely morning land breezes tending to weak E-E/SE a’noon breezes.

The small localised E swells looks to hold in the 1-1.5ft range Mon, likely just starting to perk up a bit Tues- not exceeding 2ft though.

That weak E’ly swell looks to be persistent under the slow moving pattern with high pressure drifting towards New Zealand. We should see a small uptick in size through the second half of next week. Nothing major but up into the 2-3ft range by Fri. Adding some long range E’ly swell will be a distant tradewind fetch bolstered by a tropical low this weekend in Tongan latitudes. That will add some very inconsistent 2-3ft sets likely Wed-Fri. Don’t expect too much from this swell source- it’ll be very slow.

Through this period tradewinds start to fill out the South Pacific slot between New Caledonia and the North Island. This will favour sub-tropical regions for E swell  and add to the E’ly swell likely by Fri and extending into next weekend.

Onshore winds continue through  this period- tracking around E’ly then E/NE’ly and NE’ly by next weekend so keep your expectations for surf quality firmly pegged on the low end of the scale.

The trade flow is enhanced by another tropical development linked to a Westerly wind burst (WWB) extending from PNG longitudes into Fijian areas. This WWB is creating a long, angled trough through the South Pacific Convergence Zone and squeezing onto the large high as it moves slowly in New Zealand longitudes. At the moment there’s no indication of cyclogenesis in the trough line but we’ll keep watching and report back Mon. For now, modest amounts of tradewind swell filtering down from the South Pacific slot looks like the most likely outcome with a continuing E-NE flow.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!

Comments

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Friday, 3 Nov 2023 at 6:58pm

Bit of down time after what's been a good run of late. Some good follow up rain too, so can't say I'm disappointed.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 3 Nov 2023 at 8:44pm

exactly. I just managed to get on top of some of the brush cutting between last weeks rain and this follow-up rain.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Saturday, 4 Nov 2023 at 5:01pm

Still no significant rain on the Sunshine Coast. Hoping we get a little tomorrow.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Saturday, 4 Nov 2023 at 5:02pm

Just got smashed on the MNC. Up there with the heaviest rain I've ever seen. 60mm+ in 30mins.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 6:18am

Impressive rainfall totals since 9am yesterday (most of which occurred within six hours):

Evans Head: 120mm
Eungai Ck (Nambucca): 95mm
Barneys Point (near Chinderah): 84mm
Coopers Shoot: 83mm
Maria River (near Crescent Head): 78mm
Sevan Oaks (near Hat Head): 74mm
Cape Byron: 69mm
Port Macquarie Airport: 69mm
Wooli (Browns Knob): 60mm

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 6:43am

120 in the gauge here- which shocked me. Slow moving thunderstorm really dumped on us.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 6:47am

Great news and should put those bush fires out ......so many trees were dying around here so with last weeks rain and this should green it all up......amazing it can rain for 3 years and dry out so quick

GreenJam's picture
GreenJam's picture
GreenJam Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 8:52am

luck all of you with the rain. Next to nothing up here, a few mm in the storm the other afternoon, nothing since and doesnt seem anything significant on the horizon. it's dusty...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 9:11am

It's gone ballistic overnight here- storm rain is heavily laden with available nitrogen from lightning energy.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 9:58am

Torrential rain here on the Tweed right now.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 10:19am

Been lighter but steady down here. Much more beneficial than yesterday's bucket down. Soaking the ground and filling the tanks. Yesterday's downpour mostly ran off and destroyed my driveway.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 12:27pm

Steady all day here.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 12:47pm

40mm in the 24 hours till 9 o’clock this morning and 10mm since then at Ballina airport.
Beautiful.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 12:55pm

50mm here since 9am. Nuts.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 5:21pm

Another 40mm in the gauge since I emptied it at 7am.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 5:33pm

Hey Green Jam should we get a posse together and go down and shut some traps! Haha feeling raw up here. Saw a storm cell heading this way passing Jimna. Couple of spits later on. Radar says no. Lost its oomph and contracted south to a couple of spits on the coast.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 8:34pm

70 in the gauge now.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 5 Nov 2023 at 10:18pm

100 last weekend, 100 this weekend, good stuff.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 6 Nov 2023 at 6:18am

130mm for me over the weekend.

For the record, the BOM forecast for my region was 10-20mm Saturday, and 5-10mm Sunday.

Other notable weekend totals:

Coopers Shoot: 191mm
Byron Bay (Belongil Ck Bridge): 156mm
Barneys Point: 151mm
Evans Head: 150mm
Yelgun: 130mm

GreenJam's picture
GreenJam's picture
GreenJam Monday, 6 Nov 2023 at 3:07pm

wow, I'm very jealous. 2mm in my gauge this morning! Bits of drizzle around right now. At least it'll settle the dust for a day or two.

our turn will come seeds...

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Monday, 6 Nov 2023 at 5:55pm

Nice rain last night here at 1pm. Only lasted half hour. Driving in Kawana then up highway 3pmish today some seriously heavy falls where visibility got dangerous. North of Yandina nudda but can see wet ground at home so a sprinkle or two through the day.