South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 27th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fresh S/SE winds continue Fri with strong S’ly groundswell filling in and extending over the weekend
• Surface low expected to form off North Coast Fri generating L SE-E/SE swells (Points only) on the weekend and early next week
• Winds slowly easing as low moves away from Coast early next week- possible window for clean waves Sun AM-MonAM
• Slow easing in size Tues/Wed with a S’ly change late Tues
• More S swell next week, nothing significant 

Recap

A S’ly change yesterday opened up a window of fun leftover NE windswell across North facing breaks, with some building S-S/SE swell across NENSW in the a’noon. The trough off the North Coast has been slow to deepen so an expected increase in size is being delayed. We’re seeing building swells across NENSW to 4-6ft, with smaller 3-4ft surf on the Gold Coast open beaches and 2-3ft surf on the Sunshine Coast. All under a building trend as the trough deepens off the coast and forms a surface low o/night. 

Lines starting to stack up on the Points in NENSW as swell builds

This weekend (Oct 28-29)

We’ve still got the building blocks in place for large swells across most of the Eastern Seaboard, with a large high , powerful frontal system, and deepening trough (still expected to form a broad surface low) in the Northern Tasman currently in play. 

Plenty of size tomorrow from the S/SE and building SE swell with sets to 6-8ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 4-6ft at Outer Points and exposed breaks in SEQLD. Expect size to trend down at more sheltered North facing Points and inner bays. Fresh/strong S/SE winds should ease a notch in the a’noon but it’ll be a Points only deal.

Sunday morning should see winds slowly easing as the surface low moves towards the North Island. A morning SW flow is more likely across the MNC to North Coast area, with lighter S-S/SE winds across the Byron-Tweed region and SE winds in SEQLD. Still plenty of size from the S/SE and E/SE. Swells should increase in size into more Inner Points as longer period E/SE swells make landfall. Outer Points in the 6-8ft range in NENSW, smaller 6ft in SEQLD and grading smaller into more sheltered Bays is expected. A notch smaller that what we expected on Wed but still significant for the end of October. Winds will tend E’ly in the a’noon in SEQLD, down to Byron-Ballina more NE south of Yamba.

Next week (Oct 30 onwards)

The evolution of the surface low in the sub-tropics is complicated and running a little behind schedule, but as we suggested on Wed we’ll see the remnants of severe TC Lola drift into and become absorbed into the large low centre over the weekend as it approaches the North Island. There’ll be some E/NE infeed into the low over the weekend which will add some small E’ly swell Mon, as well as dominant E/SE swell and S/SE swells. 

Expect a 4-5ft combo of S/SE swells and E/SE swell through Mon with N’ly winds, light NW in the morning and becoming fresh in the a’noon as a trough approaches.

Tues sees plenty of size still from the E/SE to 3-5ft (mostly 3-4ft with the occ. set) and a fresh N’ly flow before a S’ly change as the trough pushes through reaching the border late in the day. We’ll finesse the timing of that change on Mon.

That trough produces a brief S’ly fetch but not much size is expected, likely in the 2-3ft range late Wed into Thurs, with residual E/SE swell from the decaying low near the North Island.

Easing swells are then on offer for the rest of next week.

There is some suggestion of a trough spawning a compact low East of Tasmania next weekend with a possibility of a S swell but considering the model disagreement and time span involved it’s hard to have much confidence in it.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!