South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 16th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More S'ly swell for Northern NSW Mon (not much size in SE Qld) with freshening N’lies
• S’ly groundswell mixed with fast rising S swell Tues as low forms in Tasman
• Fresh S’lies Tues, tending S/SE-SE Wed
• Better quality pulse of SE swell Thurs, holding into Fri with light winds
• Small surf next weekend
• More S swell next week
• Looking at tropical developments near Solomons- nothing concrete but stay tuned for updates

Recap

The weekend saw a fun amount of mostly mid period S swell in NENSW generated by frontal activity with SEQLD remaining mostly tiny.  Surf was in the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks Sat, 1-2ft in SEQLD. Conditions were mostly clean under offshore to light winds. Size eased into Sun with clean 2ft surf in. NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. Clean before NE’ly winds kicked up. Some longer period S swell is showing across NENSW (mostly Coffs) with 3ft sets, while NE winds are making a mess of most spots in the region. We’ll see a major change as a strong S’ly change works it’s way north tonight. 

Terrible in SEQLD but a few workable options south of the border

This week (Oct 16-20)

A strong front and embedded trough of low pressure are currently located just off the Gippsland Coast, expected too move NE into the Tasman and driving a strong/ near gale force S’ly flow up the NSW Coast today, reaching the QLD in the wee hours of Tuesday. There’ll be an initial burst of S swell associated with the proximate fetch, with some better quality SE-E/SE swell from a secondary intensification of the low as it becomes slow moving near New Zealand.

In the short run we’ll see fresh/strong S’lies tomorrow, SW inshore early. Plenty of mid period S swell in the water across NENSW, along with longer period S swells and size to 5-6ft, building to bigger 6-8ft at S facing beaches. SEQLD will see smaller 2ft surf, building to 3-5ft at S facing beaches during the a’noon.  Sheltered and semi-sheltered spots will be smaller but cleaner. 

The advancing high will develop a ridge along the coast with S/SE winds up in the moderate/fresh range through Wed. So, don’t expect clean conditions for Wed. That initial surge in short range S swell will hold through Wed morning withy a slight easing trend in the a’noon as the low tracks away quickly. We’re still looking at sizey 6ft+ surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD, with much smaller surf on the Points.

Lighter winds for Thurs, likely SW early tending light/mod SSE-SE during the day. A reintensification of the low early Wed sees a rebuilding in SSE-SE swell to 4-5ft on Thurs, with more size getting into the Points compared to the earlier directional S swells. 

Light winds extend into Fri morning. Early W/SW-SW winds will see clean conditions across the region with light SE-E/SE a’noon breezes. The positioning of the low favours the sub-tropics so we should see plenty of fun 4-5ft surf early, easing during the day. 

This weekend (Oct 21-22)

Light winds Sat with fun leftovers to 2-3ft, easing during the day should offer plenty of fun options. By a’noon NE breezes will start to kick up so best get in early unless you have a good backbench at your disposal.

N’ly winds really kick up Sun in response to approaching front. Not much to recommend Sun. Tiny leftovers to 1-2ft with a minor NE windswell in the a’noon with nuclear strength N-N/NE winds. 

Next week (Oct 23 onwards)

Fairly active charts early next week with a cold front then cut-off low passing SE of Tasmania Mon. We’ll strike a note of caution due to model divergence but some sort of S swell will be on the cards for early next week, possibly sizey Tues as the low moves into the Tasman. Expect N’ly winds to persist into Mon.

Mid week and another trough may spawn a wind change with a powerful front/low entering the Tasman, according to GFS model.

EC is looking much more subdued, so we’ll keep a lid on the froth for now.

Looking to the north there is some tropical convective activity between the Solomons and PNG. Way too early to have any confidence or even a suggestion of a swell generating fetch from this but we’ll mention it for now and keep an eye on it during the week. It’s nice to have something to look at in the tropics during October. 

We’ll see how it looks Wed. Seeya then.