South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon 9th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S'ly swell Tues (not much size in SE Qld), early morning for the best conditions 
• New S'ly swell Wed PM (MNC), easing Thurs across all regions (not much size in SE Qld)
• Fun S'ly swell for Northern NSW Sat, easing Sun (not much size in SE Qld)
• More S'ly swell for Northern NSW Mon (not much size in SE Qld)
• Chance for solid surf mid-late next week 

Recap

Small trade swells across SE Qld over the weekend were overshadowed at south swell magnets by a series of overlapping southerly swells, that reached 3-4ft later Saturday and throughout Sunday, before easing to 2-3ft today (elsewhere was smaller, and remaining open beaches are now only 1ft+). Northern NSW picked up more size from the south with sets around the 4-5ft mark over the weekend, though fresh southerly winds made for bumpy conditions at exposed spots. Winds have eased today and most locations (except the Sunshine Coast) saw a period of light morning SW breezes before it swung E/SE on the Sunshine Coast, E’ly on the Gold Coast, E/NE in Far Northern NSW and NE on the Mid North Coast. A new S’ly swell has filled into Northern NSW today, ahead of schedule, with sets around the 3-4ft mark (slightly bigger than expected).

Tuesday arvo wobbles on the MNC

This week (Oct 10 - 13)

The early arrival of today’s south swell means the short term schedule has been brought forward, essentially a gradual easing trend through Tuesday and Wednesday. South facing beaches south of the border may pick up stray 3-4ft sets early Tuesday but otherwise expect a slow decrease in size, and there'll be very long breaks between the sets too. It’ll be smaller at beaches not open to the south.

Across SE Qld, we won't see much size away from south swell magnets, so expect very small, lacklustre surf at most beaches and points, with occasional 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast (smaller on the Sunny Coast) early Tuesday, becoming smaller into the afternoon and throughout Wednesday.

The morning will offer the best conditions on Tuesday with winds around to the NW, before northerlies come up before lunchtime, and they'll become fresh across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon.

A dissipating trough will then result in light variable winds for Wednesday (north of Yamba) with light to moderate SW tending SE winds south from Coffs. 

Mid-late Wednesday afternoon, a small long period S’ly swell will reach the Mid North Coast, generated by the final polar low in this recent Southern Ocean sequence, flaring up in our south swell window off the ice shelf this morning. Swell periods are expected to jump 14-15 seconds and south facing beaches should consequently see 3ft+ sets by the end of the day (south from Coffs). This swell will then fill in overnight across remaining coasts and slowly trend down throughout Thursday.

The morning session Thursday should offer good beachies at exposed northern ends (Northern NSW), with early NW winds before then strengthen from the north by mid-morning. North of the border will see much less consistency, and only 2ft+ sets on offer at exposed northern ends. 

A brief but gusty S/SW change will then sweep across the Mid North Coast overnight Thursday, pushing into SE Qld before lunchtime. There won't be much surf around initially, just some minor NE windswell across exposed spots south of the border, and then later some shoet period S'ly swell across the Mid North Coast (reaching the Far North Coast overnight). So, keep Friday's expectations low at this stage. 

This weekend (Oct 14 - 15)

I’m not super confident on the weekend outlook.

In general, winds look to be out of the north though there'll be pockets of light variable patterns through the mornings. 

As for surf, we'll see a mix of southerly swells filter through, sourced from W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait on Friday. This should provide 3-4ft sets across Northern NSW on Saturday, though it'll be a flukey south swell and will only favour a handful of reliable south swell magnets - most spots will be considerably smaller. 

North of the border will see very little size at most spots, south swell magnets and exposed northern end could pick up 2ft+ sets; they'll be your only option.

Sunday looks like it'll be on the backside of this south swell, so expect an easing trend with similarly flukey winds. 

Let's firm up things on Wednesday.

Next week (Oct 16 onwards)

Strong fronts coming around the SE corner of Tasmania on Saturday will generate more south swell for Northern NSW on Monday, but again very directional and thus favouring a small number of south swell magnets with 3-4ft sets.

I'm not expecting this source to be beneficial for SE Qld either, so only exposed northern ends will benefit here. 

In any case it's highly likely that we'll see northerly winds across many regions so this swell may go to waste. 

Looking further ahead, and a more meridional LWT pattern is on the cards for early next week, which suggests a stronger, bigger round of south swell for Northern NSW - maybe even the formation of some kind of significant low pressure system in the Tasman Sea too. More on that in later updates this week.