South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 6th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong south swell combo all weekend but windy from the south, protected spots your best option (they'll be smaller)
• Light winds/sea breezes first half of next week with smaller swells from the south
• Northerly risk Thurs/Fri, with small residual south swells

Recap

Strong though easing NE swells Thursday reached 4-5ft in Northern NSW, and 3-4ft in SE Qld. Winds were W/NW across most of Northern NSW through the morning but SE Qld saw northerly wobbles for the first few hours of the day before conditions cleaned up through the midle of the day (light/mod afternoon sea breeze affected some spots into the afternoon). We've seen smaller surf today easing from around 3ft across most coasts, including some trade swell in SE Qld. A new southerly groundswell is now starting to show across the Mid North Coast with 3-4ft sets on offer (this swell is running ahead of schedule; it arrived earlier than expected in Southern NSW too). Winds have been southerly for most of the day so the best waves are at sheltered points and southern ends. 

The Pass looking tasty this afternoon

This weekend (Oct 7 - 8)

No major change to the weekend outlook.

Moderate to fresh S/SE winds will occupy most of Saturday, save a few selected regions lucky enough to receive an hour or two of moderate SW winds early morning. However overnight southerlies will contribute plenty of lumps and bumps to exposed spots, regardless if we see a morning outflow or not.

We've got more southerly swell on the way too, which will build surf size back into the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches, persisting Sunday with similar winds, if anything a touch less strength. 

Beaches not open to the south will be smaller though they'll have the only workable conditions under this wind regime. 

North of the border will see similar winds, generally moderate to fresh S/SE breezes with pockets of early SW winds along the southern Gold Coast. 

The south swell won't provide anywhere near as much size here, and the trade swell will ease back a touch too. So let's peg most of the semi-exposed points and open beaches around 2ft+ (and pretty inconsistent, especially with the higher tides), with bigger 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches and exposed northern ends. 

Also in the mix on Sunday - though not mentioned in previous forecast notes, due to the complexity of the evolving Tasman Low and its three inbound swell trains - is an extra southerly groundswell, very long period in fact, sourced from a bombing low below the continent earlier this week. This swell reached Victoria this morning, with its leading edge displaying peak swell periods of 22 seconds. 

It won't produce any more size than what was previously mentioned, however it will contribute occasional long-lined sets every so often that could punch above their weight (i.e. occupying the top part of the forecast size range mentioned above).

Either way, there'll be waves all weekend, but it won't be anything amazing.

Next week (Oct 9 onwards)

No major revisions to the outlook for next week either.

A ridge of high pressure over the Tasman Sea will provide clean conditions most mornings, with afternoon sea breezes ruffling the surface. Troughiness may envelop the coastal margin later in the week (and lead to less favourable conditions, i.e. a brief spell of northerlies) but this doesn't look overly adverse right now.

The slack synoptic situation locally means we'll be replying on distant southerly sources for our surf.

Monday will see slowly easing surf from the weekend, down a foot or so out of the south and ideal for the open beaches. Wave heights will be pretty small in SE Qld though, away from south friendly beaches.

A strong polar low well south of Tasmania today will provide a nice pulse of long period swell into the 3ft range for Tuesday throughout Northern NSW's south swell magnets, but smaller elsewhere and not a whole lot of action for SE Qld.

An active Southern Ocean will provide intermittent pulses for Northern NSW during the rest of the week, including some S/SE energy mid-late week from a polar intensification below New Zealand around Monday - but it's all peripheral stuff and won't contribute a huge amount of size. However there'll be plenty of waves on offer most days, at beaches open to the south.

I can't see any break in the pattern beyond that, we'll have to take a closer look in Monday's update.

Have a great weekend!