South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 27th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E’ly distant tradewind swell hangs in at low levels Thurs/Fri
• SE winds Thurs (may not reach Sunshine Coast)
• Small mixed bag Fri with light morning winds
• More small S swell late Sat, persisting Sun favouring south of the border
• N’ly winds over the weekend, lighter in SEQLD
• NE windswell next week, tending to E/NE’ly tradewind swell mid week
• Potential for fun waves as winds shift offshore Thurs
• Possible S swell next weekend if low forms in Tasman- low confidence check back Fri for updates

Recap

Longer lined E’ly swell filled in yesterday from a souped up tradewind fetch in the South Pacific. Size was an inconsistent 2-3ft with some bigger 4ft set waves on offer. Winds were calm through the morning and there was some real quality to some of the beachbreaks in the region. N’ly winds shut down the party mid-morning and howled through the a’noon. Size has dipped back to an inconsistent 2-3ft today with light NW-N winds tending mod N’ly through the day. A shallow S-SE change should be in Coffs by late a’noon, after dark across most of the Northern Rivers and early/mid morning across SEQLD although it may stall before it gets to the Sunshine Coast.

There was some real quality to the beachies yesterday if you could find a good bank

This week (Sep27-29)

Typical mobile spring pattern with a high moving NE into sub-tropical latitudes, a weakening trough moving north, remnants of a weak low in the Tasman and a new high cell moving through the Bight. High cells are now tending to move NE as they enter the Tasman, bringing N’ly episodes which were rare through our triple La Niña but are becoming common as we enter El Niño proper. Small, combination swells and some light wind periods pad out the rest of the week with a more entrenched N’ly episode next week.

In the short run and we’ll see light winds through tomorrow morning as a broad area of high pressure moves over NSW and the trough hovers about the border, with winds tending SE’ly in the a’noon, NE south of Yamba. A small mixed bag of SE swell from a Cook Strait fetch and S/SE and E swells should provide some 2 occ 3ft surf across open beaches. More 2ft than 3ft but fun under clean conditions.

Light winds for Fri morning, tending SE north of the border, variable around Tweed-Byron and NE south of Ballina under a weak, troughy flow. That should see another day of unremarkable but fun beachies in the 2 occ. 3ft range. Just enough energy for a shred. 

This weekend (Sep30-Oct1)

N’ly quarter winds for the weekend as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. Expect those winds winds to get up to “nuclear” strength through NENSW both days, lighter by a notch in SEQLD and with longer periods of light NW breezes for the early.

Not much size for Sat  morning- just a weak signal of leftover swells in the 2ft range, biggest at open and back beaches. A stronger front tracking quickly NE into the Tasman Fri with an off axis fetch may see some stronger S swell show through the late a’noon across the MNC - up into the 3ft range. By then we will have full strength N/NE winds blowing so you’ll need direct S facing beaches or reefs to find protection.

Similar winds Sun so get in early for any hope of a clean wave, especially south of the border. Saturdays S swell pulse will hold some 3ft sets in NENSW at S facing beaches, smaller in SEQLD where small E swell to 2ft holds a few fun waves. We’ll see some workable NE windswell develop in the a’noon, up into the 2ft range south of Ballina. 

Next week (Oct2 onwards)

Still looking like NE windswell will be the main item on the menu next week along with an extended spell of N’lies. A shallow trough brings a weak SE change that may just tickle the Coffs coast Mon, with a N’ly flow elsewhere. Not much surf expected, just a small mixed bag to 1-2ft, likely torn to pieces by N’lies across most of the region.

No change to the winds on Tues- N’lies throughout. Tues morning should be the low point. By the a’noon we should start to see some developing NE windswell, especially on the MNC. EC is much more bullish than GFS so we’ll see how the models look on Fri. Under EC scenario we should be in the 2ft range by close of play, GFS still small 1-2ft.

By Wed a building trend in NE windswell looks assured as winds accelerate into an approaching complex trough and the fetch extends northwards. We’ll see how the fetch looks on Fri, but we can pencil in 3ft surf with a reasonable degree of confidence.

Stronger into Thurs, possibly in the 4ft range or even bigger if EC comes off. The NE swell will be augmented by E/NE tradewind swell as the fetch extends across the Southern Coral Sea.

Make plans for Thurs as the trough brings a clearing NW-W flow offering potential for some really fun surf. 

Further ahead and the complex trough may form a low in the Tasman Fri with the return flow offering solid potential for strong S-S/SE swell into the weekend 7/8 Oct.

That's a long way off, so we’ll flag it for now and see how it looks on Fri and into the new week.

For now, more small waves typical of spring are on offer.

Seeya Fri.