South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E’ly tradewind swell now easing with fun leftovers Tues, becoming tiny Wed
• Small S swell in the mix Tues, easing Wed
• Minor S swells late Fri/Sat with light winds
• Slightly stronger S swell Sun/Mon - still tiny in SEQLD
• Couple of flukey sources on the radar next week, check back Wed for updates

Recap

Great weekend of waves with E/NE tradewind swell chugging away in the 3-4ft range all weekend although it was pulsey and tidally affected. Clean conditions across the entire weekend in NENSW, with a SE flow a bit of a niggle on the Sunshine Coast. Points and beachies all had their moments. Today has seen S’ly winds re-establish and swell size has begun to ease with sets to 3ft becoming less consistent under a general easing trend.

Somehow the odd below sea level keg slipped through the crowd unridden!

This week (Aug 7-11)

Another large high (1034hPa) is currently moving offshore from Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a long, NW-SE angled trough now moving offshore and towards the North Islands. The remnants of a low/front near the South Island are lingering near the South Island through the short term with the next frontal system expected late this week. A persistent tradewind fetch is in the process of resetting with a less favourable wind alignment and easing swells. No major swell sources on the radar so lets look at a few bits and pieces on offer this week.

In the short run the high moving offshore maintains a moderate ridge up the Eastern Seaboard with light SW flow tending to mod S/SE breezes tomorrow. E/NE tradewind swell looks to supply some 2-3ft surf but it will be easing through the day. Small amounts of S swell to 2-3ft will pad out wave heights at S exposed breaks in NENSW.

Similar winds Wed AM but they will drop out Wed a’noon as the high quickly moves NE. Expect a’noon E’ly breezes in NENSW, more SE in SEQLD but wind speeds across the region will be on the decline after lunch. Small mixed bag of easing E/NE swell and S swell remnants will see some clean 2ft surf on the beachies, best early on the morning offshore breeze. 

Small mixed bag Thurs, down a notch though with all swell sources easing. Expect some clean 1-2ft surf on the beachies early. Light W winds early tend NW’ly -N’ly as a front approaches and passes through Bass Strait and Southern NSW. 

The front looks pretty weak and mobile as it it passes into the Tasman Fri. It’ll bring SW winds, tending S-SE’ly in the a’noon and a small boost in S swell possibly showing on the MNC. Not much size or strength in it- up to 2ft or so at S facing beaches. We’ll see how it looks on Wed but for now, it’s looking like a dud.

This weekend (Aug 12-13)

Another front following closely behind Fridays front bring another SW’ly burst Sat, likely tending S’ly or variable in the a’noon. Small S swells should build to 2-3ft in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft at SEQLD S swell magnets.

A much stronger parent low and trailing fetch passing south of Tasmania early Sat should see slightly stronger S swell fill in on Sun. A mix of mid period S and some longer period S swell look to build surf into the 3ft range during Sun. We’ll finesse size and timing during the week but it’s worth penciling in. More light SW winds early tending to light/mod SE winds in the a’noon.

Next week (Aug 14 onwards)

Nothing major on the radar next week. The remnants of the weekends front/low look to linger near the South Island so we should see some small S swell persist into Mon at least, possibly Tues with S’ly winds Mon, tending N’ly on Tues. An easing trend looks to be the most likely outcome though.

Both major models are still struggling to resolve troughiness in the Tasman. We may see a Cook Strait fetch develop Tues/Wed (see below) with potential for a small SE swell Thurs. 

EC is interested in a weak low in the Central Tasman during the same time frame that may be good for some small SE-E/SE swell. Nothing worth getting frothed up about.

A front in the lower Tasman may deliver a small payload of S swell mid next week as well, not exceeding 2-3ft.

We’ll keep tabs on it and come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.