South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 2nd Aug)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Wed PM/Thurs
• E’ly tradewind swell now looking quite sizey, building in from Wed PM Thurs, peaking Fri into the weekend
• Winds easing over the weekend and staying light into early next week
• E’ly tradewind swell lingers into next week before easing
• Potential later next week/weekend for E swell as trough/low may form near North Island, check back Fri for updates

Recap

Not a great deal of surf around with small grovel waves yesterday topping out at 1-2ft at swell magnets north and south of the border. Winds were light most of the day. Today we’ve seen the SE surge build through the region with winds up in excess of 20 knots north of Byron (much weaker south of Yamba and even SW in Coffs) and a small mix of short range SE swell building along with a new S swell showing across the MNC in the post lunch hours. 

Building S swells across the MNC with lighter winds there

This week (Aug2-Aug4)

A massive high (1035 hPa) is currently moving over temperate NSW into the Tasman Sea, with a SE surge extending up the sub-tropical to tropical Eastern Seaboard, and a more N’ly flow south of Seal Rocks. In the wake of a strong front earlier this week we have still have moderate S swell trains propagating through the Tasman Sea which will be one swell source through the short term. The bifurcation between the sub-tropics and temperate regions increases through the end of the week with NE windswell in the temperate areas and E’ly tradewind swells building in the sub-tropics.

In the short run winds the outlook is for SE-E/SE winds to continue at mod strength. SE short range swell will add to mid and longer period S swell with surf to 3-4ft across NENSW, slightly smaller in SEQLD. To find clean surf you’ll have to take a substantial size hit with small, clean peelers on the Points.

SE swell tends to more E’ly tradewind swell Fri and that should be the dominant swell throughout most of the region, with S swells holding 3ft of surf in NENSW. Surf in the 3ft range from tradewind swell will be wind affected throughout as E’ly winds hold steady. Lighter winds south of the border may offer some cleaner options but best to expect a bit of gurgle on top deal with that. 

This weekend (Aug 5-6)

A troughy area over the inland and extending up towards the North Coast with should see a slackening in E’ly winds Sat, possibly light SW in the morning before tending light SE-E/SE in SEQLD, more E-E/NE in NENSW. Tradewind swell chugs away in the 3ft range, possibly a few bigger sets as the fetch matures. There’ll be heaps of fun waves, albeit not A-grade quality.

The trough now looks to bring a weak S’ly change Sun, with winds easing back to light SE in the a’noon. Odds are very good for a period of morning land breezes across the region and clean beachbreaks with 3-4ft of E’ly tradewind swell supplying heaps of fun surf. Sunday looks the pick of the week. 

Next week (Aug 7 onwards)

Slowly easing tradewind swell next week. A weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman, holding a light onshore SE flow across the region for Mon and Tues with an easing signal of tradewind  swells Mon and traces of long period S swell in the mix Tues. Expect a few 3ft sets Mon, easing through the day and tending to 2-3ft surf Tues, easing during the day. Tradewind swells tend to have a nice long tail, so we should see plenty of fun waves on the way back down with light morning SW winds and SE breezes during the day. 

A little more potential from mid week. At least according to GFS model. That suggests one of the troughy areas deepening N and NW of the North Island in our wide open Eastern swell window. Early days but under that scenario we could be looking at a few good pulses of E swell late next week or next weekend more likely.

EC wants nothing to do with that, maintaining a weaker, troughy pattern with suggestions of a weak low in the Tasman late next week and a small round of S-SE swell into the weekend 12-13/8.

We’ll see how it shapes up on Fri. It’s a pattern change after El Niño dominated synoptic set-ups to see a more troughy looking Tasman Sea - lets hope it leads to some swell from the Eastern quadrant before Spring is sprung.

Seeya Friday.