South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 31st July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf extends through Tues
• Small S swell pulse Wed PM/Thurs
• E’ly tradewind swell now looking quite sizey, building in from Wed PM Thurs, peaking Fri into the weekend
• E’ly tradewind swell lingers into next week before easing
• Possible S-SE swell from mid next week- revisions likely

Recap

Small, mixed swell (traces of longer range E swell, and S'ly groundswell mostly) hung in there nicely over the weekend with most beaches seeing 2ft surf Sat, the odd 3 footer at magnets and open beaches easing into Sun before slowly backing down further through the a’noon. Mostly clean conditions under morning land breezes and light a’noon NE winds. Today has seen surf ease back further, mostly 1-1.5ft with the odd 2 footer on hand. Surf is weak and messy with onshore winds expected to tend SE-E/SE through the day. 

Blue water and fun beachies on the weekend

This week (Jul31-Aug4)

We’ve got a classic winter, stratified pattern with a high pressure belt over the continent, extending out into the Tasman Sea and a robust W’ly storm track below the maritime continent. We’ll see frontal intrusion into the Tasman early this week, with a small front passing into the Tasman today and a stronger system following behind it tomorrow- generating more pulses of S swell mid week. Once the dominant high enters the Tasman on Wed we’ll see a SE’ly to E'ly tradewind pattern start to establish through the Coral Sea, more typical of Summer, likely extending into the weekend with plenty of workable tradewind swell associated with it.

In the short run not much on offer tomorrow. Tiny to start under offshore winds with the best S swell magnets under 2ft. We should see a few traces of longer period S swell make landfall through the a’noon, not much more than the odd 1-2ft wave at S facing beaches and with a light onshore flow it will barely be worth working around. Expect tiny/flat surf in SEQLD with an a’noon onshore SE-E/SE flow.

Wednesday will see more S swell propagating up the coast as a stronger front pushes NE into the Tasman tomorrow. As mentioned on Friday though winds look iffy as high pressure quickly establishes a ridge up the Eastern Seaboard with a mod/fresh SE flow. Size in the 2-3ft range should build into the 3-4ft range across the Mid North Coast after lunch, mid a’noon on the North Coast and late in the day across the border. We’ll see short range SE-E/SE swell start to fill in with the high pressure surge, especially in SEQLD where size is expected to reach a windy 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Quite a straightforwards pattern for the rest of the week. The high maintains a ridge up the sub-tropics to tropics with SE-E/SE winds in QLD, grading more E’ly to E/NE’ly with southerly latitude. 

S swell should hold some solid sets in NENSW on Thurs in the 4ft range at S exposed breaks, which will be heavily wind affected. Smaller S swell in SEQLD, where E’ly swell trains will start to dominate. 

Expect E/SE swell to build into the 2-3ft range Thurs and build a notch further into Fri. The Sunshine Coast will see a notch bigger surf through this period. 

There’ll be enough E’ly swell energy for some small peelers at the Points under SE winds but low swell periods will mean there won’t be much size down the inside sections.

This weekend (Aug 5-6)

Looks like mostly E’ly-E/NE’ly tradewind swells continuing over the weekend. Winds look to shift N’ly at this stage, although an inland trough and weak, troughy area along the SEQLD coast may see lighter winds or possibly even a weak S’ly change extending up the NSW coast through Sunday. We’ll finesse that wind outlook through the week.

Fun sized tradewind swell should hold 3ft surf on Sat, with the tendency for improved wave quality as the fetch matures and wavelengths reach maximums. 

Should be similar on Sunday - peaky E/NE tradewind swell to 3ft widespread across the region. A few traces of long range, long period S swell may glance S swell magnets in NENSW with some inconsistent 2ft sets but with dominant tradewind swell energy in the water it’ll be mostly unnoticed apart from a few spots.

Next week (Aug 7 onwards)

A troughy pattern is expected in the Tasman next week. We may already see an angled trough and low pressure start to form early next week, bringing a S’ly change Mon. 

E/NE tradewind swell looks to hang in there to start the week but an easing trend is on the cards for Mon a’noon, extending into Tues as the tradewind fetch breaks down. 

By mid next week, major models suggest a broad area of low pressure in the Tasman, with EC locating this area in the Northern Tasman at sub-tropical latitudes and GFS positioning it off the NSW temperate coast.

We’ll see how it shapes up. Under the latter scenario we’ll see some useful SE-E/SE swell develop from mid week, likely with winds from the same direction.

EC scenario suggests surf more focussed on NENSW and SEQLD. 

The troughy outlook will reduce confidence in these outcomes so check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.