South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized E-E/NE tradewind swell over performs and lingers at low levels over the weekend
• Small S swells over the weekend, tiny in SEQLD
• NW winds over the weekend, tending more N’ly and freshening Sun
• Tiny surf extends into early next week
• Small S swell pulse Wed PM/Thurs
• E’ly tradewind swell now looking quite sizey, building in from Thurs, peaking Fri into the weekend

Recap

A mix of long period S-S/SE swells and persistent (over performing) E’ly tradewind swell saw surf top out around 4ft yesterday with some NENSW swell magnets hoovering up some bigger sets. Conditions were lumpy/glassy most of the day under light winds. Today has seen a similar blend of swells, a notch smaller and less consistent but still supplying 3-4ft sets across NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD at open beaches. Conditions were clean early under W-W/NW wind, degrading by mid morning under a N’ly flow.

Over-performing E/NE swell supplying some punchy beachbreaks on the Sunshine Coast

This weekend (July 29-30)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A trough and cold front are being rapidly shunted southwards by a blocking high which is moving NE into the sub-tropical Tasman and weakening. The current swell sources are slowly drying up leaving us with small background swells for the weekend.

Winds look OK though for squeezing the last juice from the lemon. Light offshore breezes through the morning will tend N’ly to NE’ly in patches through tomorrow as a weak trough approaches, with a NW’ly trend apparent again in the a’noon. A small blend of S swells and persistent E’ly tradewind swell should hold some 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches but by a’noon energy will be on the wane so make the most of the morning.

Sunday looks smaller, with just traces of S swell holding in the 1-2ft range in NENSW at the most reliable S swell magnets. Small leftover E’ly tradewind swell should hold a 1-2ft signal in SEQLD. Light NW winds through the morning will make back beaches nice if you can find a tiny peak, most likely better suited for a log or fish. Expect freshening N’lies in the a’noon.

Next week (July 31 onwards)

We’ll start the week with a weak, troughy pattern while we wait for another large high to arrive from the Bight. 

That will see light land breezes Mon before a weak S-SE change with tiny surf, possibly just rideable at the most reliable swell magnets.

By Tues a front sweeping up past Tasmania in advance of the large high brings SW winds tending S’ly to SE’ly through the day. We should see a small bump in low quality short range S swell mixed in with some traces of longer period swell- up to 2ft or so at S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. 

Stronger S swell then arrives later Wed as a more powerful fetch of severe gales rushes through the lower Tasman (see below). Again, this is a fetch better aimed at targets across the Tasman and South Pacific but swell periods should be high enough and the fetch strong enough for a reasonable pulse of S swell back to the Eastern Seaboard. Wave models are suggesting size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches building later in the day across NENSW. By this stage the strong high will be building a firm ridge  up the sub-tropical and tropical coastlines with mod/fresh SE winds expected. Some short range SE swell is expected to develop across SEQLD, likely overpowering the S’ly swell.

Size holds Thurs as the S swell pulse peaks through the morning then backs down, likely with some 2-3ft surf early under a mod/fresh SE’ly flow. Short range SE-E/SE swell should build to 3-4ft north of the border through Thurs, tending to more ‘ly swell and smaller from Byron southwards.

The large high sets up a very useful tradewind flow across the Central and Southern Coral Sea, generating a very handy tradewind swell for the sub-tropics through the latter half of next week and into the weekend. As the fetch matures and we get a fully developed sea state we can expect plenty of punchy E’ly tradewind swell likely to build into the 3-4ft range Fri and possibly reach 3-5ft over the weekend. Winds will be basically SE-E through this period, tending more E-E/NE into NENSW and becoming lighter over the weekend.

While quality may not be A grade there should be plenty of fun options around.

Another large high moving in at similar latitudes into next weekend suggests a similar pattern of small SE-E/NE swell into the medium term, favouring the sub-tropics as the ridge rebuilds and re-strengthens the tradewind flow in the Coral Sea. Quite an unexpected treat for early August where we would be normally battening down the hatches for strong W’ly winds.

That’s a long way off though so let’s see how it’s shaping up Mon.

In the meantime, have a great weekend!