South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing short range SE swells Thurs with light winds
• S’ly swells favouring NENSW with long period swells late Wed/Thurs
• Small long period S swell Fri PM with NW winds-barely showing in SEQLD
• Small S swells over the weekend, tiny in SEQLD
• Tiny surf extends into next week
• Episodic S swells resume Wed
• Possible small E’ly tradewind swell favouring SEQLD from Thurs next week

Recap

Fun sized mostly SE swell yesterday ( a mix of easing groundswell and short range swell) supplied surf in the 3ft range across most of the region, tending biggest on a north-south gradient. SE winds were mostly too strong for beachbreaks but eased in the a’noon. Today has seen cleaner conditions as SE winds eased with swell magnets in the 3ft range, smaller into more protected spots. Traces of long period S swell were on the buoys with some long lines across NENSW translating to 2ft sets.

Swell magnet hoovering up all the available SE and S swell in the water

This week (Jul 26-28)

We’ve still got a massive high pressure system (1037 hPa) moving over inland NSW, slowly weakening as it enters the Tasman Sea through tomorrow and over the weekend.  The ridge up along the sub-tropical coast will break down as it does so.  A powerful front has passed through the Tasman, creating a pulse of long period S’ly groundswell. A more compact but even stronger storm is right behind it, reaching peak strength halfway across the lower Tasman before slamming into the South Island. Settled conditions are then expected over the weekend before another series of fronts traverse the lower Tasman next week.

In the short run we’ll see an offshore morning tomorrow likely lasting well into the late morning before light/variable winds in the a’noon. We’ll be on the backside of the short range SE swell which we’ve seen the last few days, with some long period S’ly groundswell supplying 3-4ft sets across NENSW S facing beaches. SEQLD will see a smaller blend of SE to S swells to 2-3ft at S swell magnets, smaller elsewhere.

Variable winds Fri should start out W to W/NW, trending N/NW-N during the day on Fri as a front approaches. Again, some longer period S swell trains will be in the water, but very flukey across the region. Expect a few 3ft sets at reliable S swell magnets, biggest in NENSW where some outliers could see bigger 4ft sets. It’ll be flukey and inconsistent on the sets but background energy should keep rideable surf humming all day at most open beaches.

This weekend (July 29-30)

Not much action now this weekend. Fridays front weakens and gets shunted southwards quickly on Sat, leaving light offshore winds, and a’noon NE seabreezes. 

Similar winds for Sun under weak pressure gradients.

You’ll need to hunt down swell magnets for small S swells, mostly generated by an off-axis fetch running along the South Island. Traces of longer period swell and mid period S swell will supply a few 2-3ft waves for S facing beaches in NENSW Sat- smaller 1-2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches.

Size looks to ease by a notch Sun. 1-2ft at S facing beaches tops but worth a squizz under perfect conditions.

Next week (July 31 onwards)

Still looking small to start next week with small S swell Mon, under light winds. Likely even smaller than Sun with just marginal conditions at S swell magnets and offshore winds. Expect tiny/flat surf in SEQLD.

Tiny surf then continues through Tues across the region.

A strong front pushes past Tasmania Tues under current modelling. That should see W’ly winds freshen, and tend W/SW through the day. We may see a small late kick in S swell Tues on the MNC from winds out of Bass Strait, but nothing more than 2ft at S facing beaches.

Wed looks a much better bet with a moderate winter S swell episode. We’ll pencil in building 3-4ft at S facing beaches across NENSW, 2ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD,  and see how it’s shaping up on Fri. Winds looks a bit iffy- with high pressure moving quickly off the NSW Coast suggesting a developing S-SE onshore flow.

Further ahead and it looks like we’ll see N’lies later next week, potentially with a small E/NE trade-swell developing Thurs or Fri. More cold fronts then suggest more episodic S swells next weekend, likely blended with some small E’ly tradewind swell from winds in the Coral Sea off the top of the high.

Check back Fri for the latest update and a last look at the weekend.