South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peaky tradewind swell rebuilds a notch Tues, holds into Wed
• Light winds Tues with some morning gurgle likely
• Stronger trough/front now brings upgraded S swell Wed
• Plenty of S-S/SE swell Thurs, easing a notch Fri, S'ly winds easing through this period
• Weekend looks fun with leftover S/SE swell Sat, SE swell Sun and light winds
• Dynamic outlook for next week as low pressure forms in Tasman, possibly windy and sizey - check back Wed for revisions

Recap

A weekend of fun, if unspectacular tradewind swell, with most places from Ballina north seeing 2ft surf both days, with a few bigger waves on hand. Conditions were mostly clean in the mornings apart from a lingering S’ly flow on the Sunshine Coast which affected open beaches. Winds tended light S-SE across NENSW on Sun and those winds have strengthened a notch into today with E’ly tradewind swell generally holding in the 2ft range with the odd bigger set.

S'ly winds were a bit annoying but still some fun beachies on the Sunshine Coast this weekend

This week (Jul 17-21)

We’ve got a mobile pattern this week with high pressure over NSW slipping out into the Tasman, before a trough and front push into the Tasman in advance of another high cell moving over Southern NSW into the Tasman. We’ll see quite a few wind change this week as a result and an upgrade in S-S/SE swell energy as the trough and front develop a handy fetch in the Tasman. A few juicy developments now showing in the medium term as well. Read on for details.

In the short run and we should see a nice little mixed bag tomorrow. E’ly tradewind swell perks up a notch to 2-3ft as the fetch rebuilds. NENSW should also see some small S swell make landfall, in the 2ft range, bigger at select swell magnets. Early winds are likely to tend offshore for most of the region, with a lingering onshore flow more possible in SEQLD. Winds should drop out and tend variable through the day across the region so if your spot has morning sickness it may be worth a later look.

Wednesday now looks dynamic as a trough/front, with a strong pressure gradient to a high moving across NSW push S’ly quarter gales  up into the Tasman. Early SW winds will freshen to strong wind level, and tend strong S’ly through the day. We’ll see a rapid rise in S swell Wed, up into the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches around lunch-time starting from the MNC and making the QLD border late in the day. Prior to that, clean E’ly tradewind swell should hold fun 2-3ft surf at least from Yamba north-wards. Fresh S’lies will confine clean condition to more protected location which be much smaller- but there should be enough E’ly energy for surfable options.

Conditions moderate Thurs as the fetch moves across the Tasman and high pressure moves over temperate NSW. That should see morning S-S/SE winds easing in the a’noon, with a tendency to N’lies on the MNC. Plenty of S swell is still expected for the morning, in the 3-5ft range across most S exposed breaks in NENSW smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD where easing tradewind swell still chugs away and supplies some 2ft+ sets. 

Nice and clean for Fri morning as light offshore winds predominate. We should see SSE swell in the 3-4ft range coming from the off-axis fetch near the South Island, smaller by a notch in SEQLD. A weak front pushing up the NSW coast brings a S’ly change which sputters out near Coffs. A light N’ly flow is expected in SEQLD. Light/variable winds in between.

This weekend (July 22-23)

Back to light S’ly winds Sat as another high cell moves over the region and a weak ridge builds up the coast. Light land breezes tending to a’noon S-SE beezes is the most likely outcome at this stage. We should see some fun workable SSE-SE swell from the remnants of the fetch near the South Island Sat, in the 2-3ft range on the sets.

Fun sized surf extends into  Sun. The trough moves NE and forms a large area of low pressure N of the North Island late this week. We may see some quality groundswell form this source depending on how the fetch is located with respect to the swell shadow of the North Island. Initially though strong winds out of Cook Strait and the west coast of the North Island send a small pulse of SE swell which looks to arrive Sun, under current modelling. Expect clean 2 to occasional 3ft surf Sun under light winds, with offshore breezes for most of the morning.

Next week (July 24 onwards)

Definitely the most dynamic looking outlook we’ve seen this winter next week. Models are all over the place so we’ll sketch out the basic outline and refine details as we move through the week. Lingering troughiness in the Tasman now looks to seed low pressure next week, likely with two centres. Around these two centres, potentially one off the Far North Coast of NSW and one off the South/Central Coast we’ll see S-SE winds strengthen through early next week. 

Depending on where these low pressure centres are located we’re likely to see building swells from the SE Mon, into Tues possibly very sizey. Winds look to be fresh S’ly Mon, potentially easing Tues (or more likely Wed) as the low moves away.

We’ll peg in size in the 3-4ft range Mon, possibly building further to 6ft or bigger Tues. Revisions on size and timing highly likely.

We also may see some longer range E swell from the low off the top of the North Island later next week, in the 3-4ft range.

It’s a dynamic outlook with lots of model variance so make sure you check back in Wed for the latest update.

Seeya then.