South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 12th July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulses continue Thurs/Fri, tiny north of the border, clean early with a'noon onshore winds
• Peaky tradewind swell developing this weekend and extending into next week, possibly through to next weekend
• Another round of small S swell pulses likely later next week

Recap

Small, flukey S swells have continued to make landfall with reliable S magnets faring OK and a lot of places missing out. Yesterday topped out with some 3-4ft sets at NENSW S swell magnets, 2-3ft mostly south of the border with tiny in SEQLD. Conditions were clean under a mostly offshore flow before light onshore breezes kicked up in the a’noon. Still a few inconsistent 3ft sets around this morning at reliable S swell magnets, remaining mostly tiny in SEQLD. Clean conditions with early W’ly winds have now tended S to SE as a high pressure ridge builds up the coast. 

Still some small fun S swell in NENSW

This week (Jul 12-14)

A large high (1030 hPa) is now drifting across Southern NSW, in the process of setting up a ridge along the sub-tropical to tropical Eastern Seaboard, with typically lighter winds along the temperate NSW coast. Cold fronts have passed through the Tasman and the high pressure will now exert a blocking effect, steering fronts well away from the swell window or ensuring a zonal (W-E) flow through the end of the week and into the weekend. The high pressure cell develops a healthy trade-wind flow through the Coral Sea into this weekend, generating fun waves from the E. It’s quite a persistent pattern, breaking down mid next week. Small, flukey S swells get even smaller and flukier in the interim, while peaky tradewind swell chugs away.

In the short run and a small pulse of S swell now showing across the MNC should hold into tomorrow with size to 2-3ft at S facing beaches, a few bigger 3ft sets possible at NENSW S swell magnets and not much north of the border apart from a few stray 1-2ft sets at S swell magnets. Light SW winds early should tend to light/mod SE winds during the day.

Same again Fri. A small blend of S swell trains from the frontal activity in the far lower Tasman holds some 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, remaining tiny in SEQLD apart from a few reliable S swell magnets. Morning light winds look to tend to SE/NE breezes- more SE north of the border and NE south of Byron. We may see a small signal of E’ly tradewind swell start to build to surfable heights on the Sunshine Coast during the a’noon.

This weekend (July 15-16)

S swell dries up this weekend with some small leftovers Sat, easing back to tiny Sun. It should be clean both mornings at least  under an offshore flow, before light onshore winds kick in during the a’noon.

The good news is, as S swell drops out a persistent tradewind fetch drops down into the Central Coral Sea and supplies some workable tradewind swell. Expect small 2ft surf Sat ( a little bigger on the Sunshine Coast) building to 2-3ft peaky surf on Sun. Swell direction should be just north of E so it should get into most beaches and Points. 

Next week (July 17 onwards)

Tradewind swell chugs along for most of next week under a fully developed sea state through the Central/Northern Coral Sea. High pressure moves NE of Sydney early next week with a moderate S-SE flow likely Mon and fun 3ft surf, which should continue through Tues. With the tradewind fetch maintained by the new high we should see workable tradewind swell hovering in the 2-3ft range for most of next week. More high pressure approaching from the W may see tradewind swell even further into the medium term but we’ll have to see how it shapes next week.

Mid week sees a stronger front likely to push NE into the Tasman, with possibly a parent low well to the south. Wave models aren’t very interested in these features but it’s likely we’ll see another round of S swell pulses, possibly as early as Fri and extending into the weekend. 

More zonal fronts approaching next weekend suggest a further W’ly wind episode and more small S swell pulses. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how that is shaping up.