South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd July)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S/SE swell across Northern NSW Tues, OK conditions with variable winds
• Still very small in SE Qld, though there'll be options at south swell magnets
• Background S/SE swell for the rest of the week favouring Northern NSW, clean with offshore winds
• Chance for a brief pulse of strong S/SE swell sometime on Thurs (Northern NSW only)
• Small inconsistent surf for the weekend

Recap

Strong S’ly swells provided 4-5ft sets across Northern NSW on Saturday though the direction didn’t favour SE Qld (away from south swell magnets, which did kinda OK). Conditions were generally clean with light winds ahead of a light to moderate northerly into the afternoon. Sunday saw easing S’ly swells and fresh SW tending S’ly then SE winds in parts, which are slowly abating today as a fresh S/SE pulse pushes up along the coast. Southern NSW picked up solid 4-5ft+ sets this morning and we’re now starting to see that energy across the Mid North Coast.

Tiny (and shallow!) at the Superbank, but how d'ya reckon the two kids fishing for flatties on the inside gutter are doing?

New energy pushing into Coffs mid-arvo Monday

This week (Jul 4-7)

The Long Wave Trough responsible for our current southerly swell regime is exiting New Zealand longitudes, though we’re still seeing strong polar activity off the ice shelf (see below). It’s out of direct alignment within our swell window, but should still provide a spread of long period S/SE swell throughout the next four or five days.

Before we get to that point, we still need the developing S/SE swell to push through, reach a plateau and then slowly abate - which will happen overnight and then gradually through Tuesday. 

We’re still looking at around 4-5ft of strong though increasingly inconsistent S/SE energy at south facing beaches south of Byron on Tuesday (much smaller elsewhere), but across SE Qld it’ll remain very small - up in size a smidge from the last few days, thanks to the fractional easterly component in the swell direction, but not really enough to get the points working properly. 

Fortunately, conditions should be generally OK with light variable winds Tuesday, tending some form of westerly from Wednesday (initially NW). Note: Tuesday’s ‘variable’ winds means ‘from any direction’, which could be onshore at times, but I don’t think it’ll have much strength.

Clean conditions from Wed thru’ Fri will be accompanied by residual S/SE surf in the 2-3ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere), with periods of slightly bigger waves as each of those longer period pulses skirt the coastline. 

Wednesday looks like it may be between events (trending down from Tuesday, but still some 3ft+ sets early) but I'm expecting the leading edge of the new energy to reach the Southern NSW Coast late afternoon, pushing up into Northern NSW on Thursday. So while there may be a lag on its arrival in the morning across the Far North, Thursday has good potential for some nice waves in Northern NSW.  Without wanting to go too much out on a limb, I wouldn't be surprised if reliable swell magnets picked up occasional 4-5ft sets at the height of the event, though this certainly won't be widespread... expect inconsistent 2-3ft+ sets as a baseline at most Northern NSW beaches with a reasonable degree of southerly exposure.

Across SE Qld, expect much smaller wave heights away from south swell magnets and exposed northern ends, which - if we're lucky - could pick up occasional 2-3ft+ sets at the absolute height of Thursday afternoon's event (pick of the period would be Wed AM and Thurs PM, and maybe Fri AM). It won’t be a great run for much of the SE Qld region though.

So, we have a great week of waves for anywhere with good exposure to the south. Get into it!

This weekend (July 8 - 9)

Small S/SE groundswell will provide an undercurrent of workable action across Northern NSW through the weekend too, though sets will be very inconsistent, sourced from the tail end of the LWT, to the SE of New Zealand over the coming days. Let’s peg size around the 2ft mark, with very long breaks between waves. It'll be smaller across SE Qld so keep your expectations low.

Conditions look to be clean both days with fresh W/NW offshore winds at times both days, as a couple of vigorous fronts cross the south-eastern corner of the country. 

These fronts will be riding quite north in latitude, and the only possible swell source will be short-lived gales exiting from eastern Bass Strait (later Friday). This may temporarily boost surf size at south swell magnets along the Mid North Coast on Sunday, though only a handful of beaches will see any benefit. It’s a low percentage event right now so don’t get your hopes up. 

Next week (July 10 onwards)

Another strong front pushing through Bass Strait will supply a bigger round of short range S’ly swell for late Monday and Tuesday, thanks to a better alignment as it tracks into the western Tasman Sea. It’s still early days, but 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches south from Byron aren’t out of the question right now. Let’s see how the models resolve this over the coming days.

However, the storm track will be disconnected from the roaring forties and thus any swell event generated will be singular in nature, i.e. lacking the supporting southerly swell that usually trails broad Southern Ocean frontal system. So confidence isn’t high as to what kind of swell event it may be, how big it’ll get, and how long it’ll last.

North of the border, and unfortunately it’s looking like the small spell will continue across SE Qld though. Southerly swell regimes simply don’t favour this region very well. 

See you Wednesday!