South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 26th June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long range, pulsey E-E/SE swell lingers next week- a notch stronger Tues into Wed
• S swell pulse filling in Tues, peaking Wed with mostly offshore winds
• Another S swell pulse Thurs PM, peaking Fri with light winds
• Stronger S swell pulses expected Sat and Sun
• More long period S to S/SE swell next week, at least until Wed
• Tracking possible E/NE swell Tues/Wed as deep trough/possible surface low moves down from QLD
• More active phase for first week in July

Recap

Long range E swell supplied inconsistent but fun sized sets topping out on Sat with a few 2ft+ sets at open beaches groomed by offshore winds. Sunday was down a notch with size in the 1-2ft range and very slow. Today has seen even less swell energy with just a tiny signal of S swell joining very very inconsistent 1.5ft sets, groomed by fresh W’ly winds. 

Sunny coast beachies had a few nice lines

This week (Jun 26-30)

High pressure sitting up at sub-tropical latitudes is allowing a very active series of fronts to penetrate NE into the Tasman Sea. A very slow moving monster high tracking into WA longitudes is anchoring a sustained SW flow as the fronts ride up it’s extended flank from the Southern Ocean into the Tasman.  We’ll see multiple S swell pulses from this set-up, becoming stronger over the weekend.

In the short run and W’ly tending SW’ly winds continue through tomorrow with a front and trough moving across the Tasman. We’ll see S’ly swell trains from both W’ly winds out of Bass Strait and the SW fetch in the Tasman. Expect an under-sized start with some inconsistent 1-2ft sets out of the E/SE  with mid period S swell filling into 2-3ft at S facing beaches during the a’noon, smaller 1-2ft on the Gold Coast. Expect light S’lies in the a’noon.

W’ly winds will tend W/NW-NW through Wed as another front pushes into the Tasman. Through the a’noon winds will tend more SW from the MNC, extending up to the border by nightfall. S swell peaks at 3ft in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD through the morning, easing during the a’noon. Long range E/SE swell will perk up a notch Wed with some inconsistent 2-3ft sets, favouring the Sunshine Coast for size and consistency.

We’ll see a mixed bag Thurs morning with long range E/SE swell to 2ft+ and easing S swells to 2-3ft in NENSW at S facing beaches. Thursday a’noon sees the power dial turned up a few notches, as the front pushes into the Tasman and a proximate fetch of strong winds develops on the NSW coastline. That will see S swell build later in the day across the MNC to Byron-Tweed from 2ft in the morning to 3-4ft. Expect winds to freshen from the SW to SSW in the a’noon.

Early W to W/SW winds Fri shift NW in advance of the next front. We’ll see solid 3-4ft surf in NENSW Fri, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches, with an easing trend in the a’noon. 

This weekend (July 1-2)

A fetch of a different magnitude working on an already active sea state Fri should see a much more substantial series of S swell pulses beginning this weekend.

First stages of this series build through Sat with light morning SW’ly winds, tending light S to SE through the day. Early size to 2ft,  should slowly build to 4ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD.

As swell trains from a deeper fetch arrive we’ll see size ratchet up further Sun, up into the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches, 3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Early SW’lies will tend S-SE as the leading edge of the high pressure ridge builds in. Should be plenty of swell to utilise if you need to get out of the wind.

Next week (Jul 3 onwards)

Still a bit of model divergence to get through but as we noted on Fri a large low pressure gyre sets up in NZ longitudes over the weekend with potential for multiple gale to severe gale force fetches around the Islands. These fetches aren’t perfectly aligned for the East Coast of Australia but their sheer strength and size should see plenty of long period S-S/SE swell make landfall next week.

Plenty of size expected Mon with S facing beaches in the 4-6ft range in NENSW, 3-4ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. High pressure approaches Central NSW with a ridge up the sub-tropical coast and winds likely tending to mod S/SE-SE through the day.

Under current modelling we’re expecting more long period S swell Tues, tending to S/SE swell Wed with size provisionally in the 3-5ft range. Winds look tricky but should tend NW-N Tues as high pressure moves out into the Tasman.

By Wed we’ll be looking out for an approaching trough from QLD, dragging down moisture from the Indian Ocean/Arafura Sea. Still lots of model divergence but we can’t rule out a surface trough or even ECL forming off the QLD Coast and moving southwards although recent model runs have cooled right down on that scenario. Under that scenario we would expect sizey E/NE swell to start building Tuesday.

Potential is there for solid S/SE groundswell with offshore winds for Wed, so check back through the week and we’ll see how it’s shaping up. 

Looks like we’ll kick off July with a much more more active outlook.