South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 15th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Plenty of E’ly tradewind swell early this week, filling in on Sun with S-SE winds
• Fickle outlook Tues with low pressure trough developing off NENSW- possible increase in E swell winds tending SW as low develops
• Front and trough see S swell develop Wed 
• S swell holds into Thurs with a reinforcing pulse of SSE swell Fri under light winds
• Fun SSE swell extends into Sat with light winds
• Surf easing Sun
• Small S swell pulses next week favouring NENSW, mostly tiny in SEQLD

Recap

A fun weekend of waves with Sat seeing some 3ft sets under light land breezes before winds tended light S-SE in NENSW, stronger SE north of the border. Sunday built a notch into the 3ft+ range in SEQLD, grading smaller south of Yamba and continuing S’ly winds, light in NENSW, stronger SE north of the border. Today is seeing mostly 3-4ft surf from the E from a tradewind fetch, grading smaller south of Yamba. Light morning SW breezes are tending SE-E/SE through the day. After a mid week spike in S swell we have a more subdued outlook ahead. Details below.

This week (May 15-19)

A slow moving high in the Tasman has been gradually weakening over the weekend while a disjointed coastal trough develops at either end of the NSW coast. A good coverage of strong breezes in the Coral Sea has built a handy tradewind swell. SE winds from the weakening high will be replaced late Tues into Wed by a stiff S’ly change as a front pushes into the Tasman. The front interacts with the trough to form a surface low off the North Coast but consistent with Fridays notes the surface low is expected to rapidly move away towards New Zealand later Wed into Thurs, with a short spike in swell followed by a few fun days of SSE-SE swell as the low lingers in the Tasman Sea.

In the short run we have a day of tricky winds, lighter in NENSW and tending SW through the morning. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes suggest another day of moderate E’ly tradewind swell in the 3-4ft range, a tad smaller south of Yamba. Through the a’noon we should see a small surface low develop off the North Coast, with freshening S’lies likely down across the Far North Coast, tending more SSW on the Gold Coast and SW on the Sunshine Coast. An increase in E/NE swell from winds feeding into the low is also on the cards, moreso on the Gold Coast.

Fresh S’lies tending S/SE are on offer for Wed as the front pushes into the Tasman and the trough forms a surface low off the North Coast, possibly tracking towards Lord Howe Island during the day. Mid period S swell will quickly spike into the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD where mid period E’ly swell will hold surf in the 3-4ft range, easing during the day from that source.

We’ll see surf holding from Wednesdays peak on Thursday before easing later in the day as the S’ly fetch tracks away towards New Zealand and becomes more off-axis, while the tradewind fetch will have been dismantled. Surf in the 3-5ft range at S exposed spots in NENSW is expected, smaller 2-3 at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Winds should have some W’ly component through the morning as a trough lingers in the interior, clocking around S/SW through the morning, before becoming light S-SE north of the border stronger S’ly south from Byron.

Winds look pretty good Fri as a weak front pushes through Bass Strait, driving a SW-W flow through the region before tending to weak E’ly breezes. The stalled surface low in the Tasman has an off axis fetch but radial spread away from the slow moving source should see a rebuild in S-S/SE swell to 3-4ft on the sets in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD.

This weekend (May 20 - 21)

Clean conditions extend into the weekend with the front pushing a light W’ly flow across most of NSW and up into the southern parts of QLD, possibly tending to weak seabreezes in the a’noon. Friday increase in S/SE swell should extend into Sat morning with some 3-4ft sets in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S swell magnets in SEQLD, easing during the day.

By Sunday we’ll see that S/SE swell start to ebb away with early 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at S swell magnets, dropping back to 2ft during the day under light winds and clean conditions. Some traces of longer period S swell moving into the Tasman Sea from frontal activity below the continent look to supply some flukey 2ft sets at NENSW S swell magnets but keep expectations pegged very low.

Next week (May 22 onwards)

We’re looking at continuing small S swell pulses into early next week as fronts traverse the lower Tasman. There’s a bit of model divergence over the strength of these fronts so expect some rejigging in size and timing as we move through the week. They won’t be major swell events anyway we slice it- so we’ll be looking towards S facing beaches and swell magnets to make the most of the size on offer. 

The northern extremity of a front is expected to bring another round of SW-SSW wind Mon with a small late kick in S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, extending into Tues with winds likely to improve. These pulses will be mostly tiny in SQLD. 

Mid week looks a better bet with pre-frontal NW winds and a kick in S swell offering up tasty waves at S facing beaches.

S swells look to continue from mid next week possibly with a bit more size as a high in the Tasman shifts E later next week. We’ll flag that for now and see how it’s shaping up when we come back on Wed.

See you then.