South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 12th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent E swell expected to persist into the weekend- very slow at times
• Fun mixed bag this weekend as SSE swell slowly eases with SE winds developing- light SW through the morning in NENSW/Gold Coast
• Plenty of E’ly tradewind swell early next week, filling in on Sun
• Fickle outlook Tues with low pressure trough developing off SEQLD- possible increase in E swell
• Front and trough see S swell develop mid week

Recap

Reinforcing S swell lifted wave heights back to 4-5ft Thurs in NENSW, along with inconsistent 3ft sets from the E, with clean conditions under an offshore flow extending well into the late morning. Beautiful waves again this morning as S swell slowly eases with size to 4ft+ in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD and continuing E swell humming away in the background supplying pulsey 3ft sets. Light offshore winds are now tending mod SE. A very swell-filled week. 

E swell getting into the most sheltered Points, albeit small and inconsistent 

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Reinforcing high pressure moves into the Tasman, rebuilding a ridge up the sub-tropical coast with continuing SE winds, light SW early from Coffs to the Gold Coast, more likely S-SE on the Sunshine Coast. Leftover S/SE-SE swell from the last stages of the fetch as it lingered in the Eastern Tasman abutting New Zealand should hold some 3ft sets through most of the day, albeit slow and inconsistent. Mixed in will be an inconsistent signal of E swell, not offering more than the occasional 2-3ft set. There’ll be some small, short period tradewind swell developing in the a’noon, more noticeable Sunday. 

SE winds are on the menu for Sunday as high pressure drifts over Central NSW into the Tasman to join the existing cell. We should see a period of light land breezes early in NENSW, tending to light SE-E breeze during the day with stronger SE winds north of the border. E’ly tradewind swell will become dominant in SEQLD building to 3ft, smaller in NENSW with more leftover SSE swell to 2-3ft in the mix. Our long lasting E swell from the South Pacific will still be supplying the odd 2-3ft set.

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Strong high pressure in the Tasman early next week will have a firm ridge up along the QLD Coast with the focus of the ridge and wind-field in the Coral Sea starting  to move north in accordance with seasonal shifts, but still within the sub-tropical swell window.

That will see firm pressure gradients across SEQLD, easing into NENSW with north-south gradient for local winds. Stronger in the north, weaker in the south. E’ly quadrant tradewind swell should build a notch in SEQLD to 3ft+, a tad smaller south of Yamba.

A complex synoptic situation is expected to unfold from Tues, with revisions likely due to the complexity.

Basically a trough line parallel to the NSW coast develops small low pressure centres at either end, off the North and South Coasts. A front then pushes through into the Tasman Sea later Tues.

The sub-tropical low centre will likely see a swift increase in E/NE swell to 3-4ft in areas north of Coffs. Winds look tricky Tues with a deepening trough or low possibly seeing winds shift SW depending on the position of the trough/low. It’ll be a fluid situation, so stay tuned.

Fresh S’ly winds Wed will see new S swell building late in the day likely reaching 3-4ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller elsewhere. E’ly swells will remain dominant in SEQLD, holding in the 3ft range, subject to the development of the low.

It looks like the whole trough and front systems move rapidly across the Tasman during Wed, suggesting this S swell will be a spike, easing through late Thursday into Fri.

More frontal activity behind the mid week front looks to supply small S swells into next week and the weekend 20-21/5. 

We’ll see how that is shaping up on Mon, continuing troughiness and instability in the Tasman Sea at a time when seasonal expectations for ECL’s are at their maximum suggests we won’t have to wait too long for the next major swell event.

Check back Mon and have a great weekend!