South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 8th May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Strong S swells expected building late Mon, sizey in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD with mostly SW winds
• Strong S swell holds plenty of size Tues/Wed with a rebuild in size Thurs
• Quality but inconsistent E swell expected to rebuild early this week and persist through most of the week
• Fun mixed bag this weekend with SE winds developing
• Plenty of SE-E/SE swell early next week
• Potential for low pressure to develop in Tasman next week with uncertain surf potential for this region, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Leftover S swell supplied clean, fun 2-3ft surf Sat at NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD,  with light winds. Sunday eased back to a small 1-2ft with a small signal of E’ly swell in the water and light winds which tended NW before freshening W’ly winds developed as a low deepened off the South Coast. Temperate NSW is XL today with 10-15ft surf reported but much smaller surf is expected north of the Hunter curve with S swell expected to show across the Mid North Coast this a’noon, and reaching the Ballina-Byron region just on dark.

Small E swell lines today- much different tomorrow once S swell fills in

This week (May8-12)

A 996 hPa low just off the coast and a 1034 hPa high in the Bight is creating a very tight pressure gradient with subsequent severe gales and an L-XL S swell event. The primary focus of this swell is temperate NSW inside the Hunter curve, with other areas seeing much less swell. The primary low moves away to the NE through today with a powerful cold front sweeping into the Tasman Sea operating on an already active sea state to generate a powerful reinforcing swell mid week. In the South Pacific a long, persistent tradewind fetch has been chugging away with plenty of pulsey E swell expected this week.

In the short run and the low moves away to the NE quite quickly overnight, dragging the proximate gales with it. Once these gales clear the Hunter curve they’ll be better situated to generate S swell for sub-tropical regions but we won’t see the XL size seen in the Hunter-Sydney region. Overnight S swell will build in and solid sets in the 6-8ft range are expected across NENSW at  facing beaches, smaller into regional Points and wrapping into SEQLD in the  3-5ft range. In addition we’ll see some nice shaped 2-3ft E swell from a South Pacific tradewind fetch which has been chugging away in the past few days and will supply pulsey 3ft surf most of the week. Mod/fresh SW winds should extend will into the late morning/lunch-time before swinging around S’ly for the a’noon. 

Winds remain out of the S’ly quarter Wed so protected spots will be the go again with a window of offshore winds early (only favouring select regional Points handling the swell size in NENSW). A handful of beachbreaks in SEQLD may be dealing with the combination of strong S and E swells. Expect size to hold in the  6ft+ range in NENSW (S facing river mouth bars 8-10ft) easing a notch during the day, grading smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD where 3ft E swell sets will be be more noticeable in the mix.

By Thursday the high cell will be drifting just east of Bass Strait into the Tasman Sea bringing lighter, more settled winds. Expect a window of SW breezes before mod SE winds kick in. There’ll be a rebuild in size with solid 6ft+ sets Thurs in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD S exposed breaks with an easing trend through the day. E swell sets continue to supply pulsey 3ft surf.

Easing, though still sizey surf is on track to end the week. We should see a light/variable flow through the morning supplying offshore condition before light SE winds provide groomed surf on the Points. A mixed bag of easing S swell to 4ft+ in NENSW, and inconsistent E swell filtering down from the South Pacific will supply some 3ft+ sets favouring SEQLD. All in all, should be a fun way to end the week.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

High pressure moves slowly into the Central Tasman this weekend with a ridge up the coast supplying a mod SE flow, stronger on Sunday. 

 Leftovers from the SSE and a continuation  of E swell filtering down from the tropics will see mostly 3ft surf Sat.

Building SE-E/SE winds Sun are likely to see a rise in short period SE-E swell through Sun although it will become more entrenched next week. 

Hopefully, sand formations will be favourable for the small swells expected after this week’s reset.

Next week (May 15 onwards)

A strong high in the Tasman early next week, will have set up a firm ridge along the QLD Coast, with plenty of coverage of SE-E/SE winds through the Coral Sea. This wind field is expected to move southward into the Northern Tasman Sea as the high drifts towards New Zealand. 

This is likely to see plenty of summer-style E/SE swell through early next week with some size to it. We’ll peg it at 3-4ft through Mon/Tues at this early stage with a mod onshore flow, likely tending SE-E/SE through the period and favouring the Points.

Further ahead and an inland trough may exit the coast mid next week potentially creating a dynamic synoptic situation with low pressure forming in the coastal trough line. Models are divergent and we may see several outcomes including a chunky, local NE swell if the infeed into the low winds up.

Potentially we may see S’ly winds develop on the western flank of a surface low generating sizey S swell later next week.

Looks like our dynamic start to May is set to continue into next week, so check back Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.