South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 26th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Great run of surf for the points continues this week
• Rebuild in better quality E’ly groundswell from Fri into the weekend
• Tricky wind outlook this weekend, mostly light winds but some N’lies to deal with
• Easing surf next week with great beachbreaks,  with potential for a S swell late next week

Recap

E quadrant swell still had plenty of kick yesterday with size to 3-5ft providing plenty of energy across most Points under SE winds. This morning has dropped a notch but there are still some 4ft sets to be had at the Points under SE winds tending more E/SE at times. All in all, a pretty tasty albeit crowded Autumn platter.

Still some solid sets for Anzac Day

This week (Apr 26-28)

Not much change from Mon- we’ve still got a large high in the Tasman located off the Central NSW Coast, with mod/fresh SE winds in the sub-tropics tending a little more E’ly south of Ballina. The high has weakened a little faster than f/cast which has shaved off a bit of size, more noticeable in the sub-tropics. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman.

In the short run and we’ll see a continuation of the SE’ly pattern through the f/cast region with possible morning SW breezes tending SE-E/SE in the a’noon. Fun levels of mid period E swell from the top of the high hold inconsistent 3-4ft sets, favouring the Points for quality.

 Similar winds are on offer Fri- early morning SW breezes tending mod SE to E’ly (possibly E/NE-NE south of Yamba) in the a’noon. We should see a little bump in size from the E/NE as that fetch starts to intensify today. Sets back up into the 4ft+ range are on offer favouring the Points. 

This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)

OK, we have more clarity on the wind outlook for the weekend, but it’s still looking dicey so make sure you tune back in Fri.

The gist of the uncertainty is a trough expected to hover around the SEQLD region Saturday/Sun. Part of a long, complex trough system along the East Coast.

Latest modelling suggests the lingering trough draws a light W’ly flow for most of the morning, with winds tending light/mod NE in the a’noon. There should be plenty of quality options available as solid E swell holds sets to 4-6ft, although you’ll need a backbench in the a’noon to get out of the Nor-easter.

Sunday sees the trough still lingering about the Sunshine Coast region with good odds for a light/variable flow most of the morning tending to light N’lies in the a’noon. We’ll finesse the wind outlook on Fri but you’ll want to pencil in a go out with quality E quadrant swell holding in the 4-6ft range. 

Next week (Apr 31 onwards) 

Monday is looking potentially good to great, as long as current modelling holds and the trough moving out into the Tasman brings a widespread offshore flow across most of the region, Tuesday as well.

E’ly swell should hold Mon in the 4-5ft range, wth potential for offshore conditions. Slowly easing through Tuesday. 

Following that we should see E’ly swells on an easing trend with a widespread offshore flow as a broad low pressure area occupies the Tasman.

Models are offering a potential juicy outlook for later next week with the remains of the tropical low being absorbed into the more temperate storm track, merging with the broad low pressure area and intensifying a S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Coast. 

EC is still interested in this scenario with the formation of a Tasman Low late next week and sizey S swell next weekend.

GFS is suggesting a more modest frontal progression into the Tasman before a deeper fetch generates some longer range S swell in the same time frame.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up as well as taking a final pass at the weekend outlook.