South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 17th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid E/SE and S/SE swells building from Mon next week as trough-block pattern establishes
• Sizey Mon-Thurs with plenty of S-SSE wind, slowly easing through the week
• Likely rebuild in SE swell from Fri into next weekend with plenty of S/SSE wind- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Sat saw the last day of meaningful S-SSE swell with some clean 3-4ft morning sets in NENSW, smaller 2ft north of the border and slowly dwindling away through the day under light winds. Sunday was mostly a write-off with N’ly winds and tiny swells. Today is seeing stronger E-E/SE swell fill in with 3ft sets building across the region and cleanest conditions at more sheltered spots under a morning SW breeze tending to fresh S’lies through the day.

E swell rapidly filling in across the region with stiff S'lies

This week (Apr17-21)

The trough-block pattern set-up nicely over the weekend and we’re looking at a sustained run of swell from the Eastern quadrant. A long, angled trough with embedded low pressure centres on the Eastern flank is concentrating broad E-E/NE infeed fetches in our Eastern swell window. The pattern is expected to be slow moving with the main E-E/NE fetch slowly contracting north-eastwards this week while a small offshoot low looks to retrograde back into the Tasman Sea.

In the short run and high pressure drifts over the Central/Southern NSW Coast overnight maintaining a ridge along the sub-tropical coast. That should see mod/fresh S’lies, SW inshore early, tending mod/fresh SE through the day. Mid period E/SE’ly swell holds size in the 4-5ft range offering plenty of surf on the Points and some raggedy options at semi-protected beachbreaks. 

Plenty of size into Wed, with a slight thickening up expected as period boosts a notch from gales today. Expect sets to 5-6ft with winds SW early, as pressure gradients ease tending mod SE’ly through the day. 

We should see a window of light SW winds early Thurs before stiff S-SE winds kick in as a new, reinforcing high rapidly builds a ridge in behind the change. E swell just slowly ramps down from the peak with 3-5ft surf slowly easing through the day. We may see some reinforcing SSE swell in the a’noon depending on how the retrograding low behaves. We’ll fine-tune that on Wed. 

SSE winds will be on the menu Fri, as high pressure and the low in the Tasman maintains a SSE flow extending from the Central Tasman up t the sub-tropics. E swell will be down another notch but still offering up fun sized 3-4ft sets. EC does suggest a stronger retrograding low mid week which offer potential for a rebuild in size Fri from the SSE- check back Wed for that.

This weekend (Apr 22 - 23)

Stiff S-S/SE winds look to persist this weekend as the blocking trough and high in the Tasman maintain a SE-NW orientation through the Northern Tasman. We may see signs of easing winds Sunday as the pattern finally starts to break down.

Our SE-E/SE swell is showing signs of persisting over the weekend, mixed with plenty of SSE swell, as low pressure holds station in the Northern Tasman.

We’ll pencil in fun sized 3-4ft surf both days, favouring the Points, and finesse through the week. 

Next week (Apr 24 onwards)

All good things come to an end and we’ll see the trough/block pattern dissipate by next week, although the residual E swell should hold and we may see a rebuild in SE swell early next week under a high pressure surge.

Lots of model divergence next week with EC suggesting a strong high in the Tasman with a vigorous trade-wind flow in the Coral Sea and plenty of strong E/SE swell while GFS is suggesting a cold front intrusion into the lower Tasman with small S swells expected by mid-week. 

We’ll take model runs at this time frame with a grain of salt and check back in Wed to see how it’s shaping up.

In the meantime, enjoy the E swell.