South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th Oct)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small pulses of S/SSE swell continue at low levels Sat in NENSW
• Mostly N’ly winds Sat, with winds tending NW-W ahead of a S’ly change Sun
• Increasing E’ly tradewind swell Fri, holding at fun levels over the weekend and into next week
• Stronger mid period E swell fills in from Wed-Fri next week, with winds mostly favouring the Points
• S-SSE swell Mon-Tues from low forming in Tasman Sea

Recap

Troughy conditions kept winds light through Thursday with mostly weak E’ly breezes under overcast skies. Long period S swell saw some inconsistent 2-3ft sets in NENSW, grading smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. N’ly winds have kicked in today with a small mixed bag of surf, mostly under 2ft in SEQLD with some bigger 2-3ft sets from the S in NENSW. 

Scrappy with N'ly winds but still some long lines of SSE swell in NENSW

This weekend (Oct 8-9)

Much more straightforward wind outlook for our sub-tropical region compared to further south where a trough emerges around the Sydney region and forms a small but robust low later Sat into Sun. Prior to that we will see N’ly winds through Sat across the region.

That trough line migrates northwards through Sun bringing a S’ly change that is likely to hit the Mid North Coast just after lunch and extend to the QLD border by late a’noon.

Surf-wise we will see a developing E’ly tradewind swell through Sat, favouring QLD for size with surf building from 2ft to 3ft during the day. Last of the longer period S-SSE swell will supply some inconsistent 2-3ft sets in NENSW, barely noticeable in SEQLD. Mod/fresh N’ly winds will confine surfing to backbeaches unless you can stomach strong devil winds.

Winds look more favourable Sunday, with an early N’ly flow tending more NW and even W before the S’ly change hits. Keep tabs on local wind obs for the best results. E’ly tradewind and more local E/NE-NE swell is expected to push into the 3-4ft range during the day and offers good potential both pre and post wind shift for a fun wave. 

It’s a very dynamic, coastal outlook through Sun but if you can work with the winds you’ll get a wave.

Next week (Oct 10 onwards)

The low is expected to move away quickly later Sun leaving a developing S swell through Mon, likely building into the 4ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Mixed in with that will be 3ft E’ly swell, which marks the early stages of an extended swell event from the Coral Sea/South Pacific. A high pressure ridge should see mod/fresh S to SSE winds through the day, favouring the Points for clean conditions.

Mod/fresh S’ly winds are expected to continue through the first half of next week under the influence of a high pressure ridge and shear trough line in the Coral Sea. They should ease through Tues with potential for a morning land breeze.

We’ll see a slow and steady building trend in E’ly swell through this period. Up into the 3-5ft range Tues, where it will mix with easing S swell. By Wed we should see size into the 4-5ft range. Along this increasing trend swell period should inch up so expect a muscling up in power as well as size.

This muscling up continues into Thurs and Fri with size to 4-6ft.  Winds look flukey as a troughy area hovers near the QLD/NSW border, likely tending SE-NE but with no real strength at this stage.

 No doubt we will see some revision on timing next week but factor in the potential for good/great surf for most of next week.

Longer term and it looks like we will see a slow winding down of E swell into and through next weekend under light winds. We’ll be looking at another potential fetch developing off the North Island later next week, possibly a source of E swell. At this early stage it doesn’t look as exciting as the upcoming swell generator. 

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!